New blow to Labour as Scots slam budget

The YouGov survey shows a gloomy prognosis among Scots, with 48 per cent believing they will be worse off as a result of the Budget, compared with only 3 per cent who think they will be better off.

But as Prime Minister Gordon Brown gets to his feet today to deliver his keynote speech to the Scottish Labour conference in Glasgow, he can take some comfort from the fact that, north of the Border, he appears to be winning the argument with the Tories on economic strategy, which will define the election.

The poll, conducted immediately after Alistair Darling's Budget on Wednesday, revealed that 44 per cent of Scots agreed with the Chancellor's "cut later" message, compared with 38 per cent who backed the Conservative argument of implementing severe reductions in government spending now.

Meanwhile, the SNP government in Edinburgh, which has tried to argue Scotland should be shielded from cuts in services needed to help pay off the 1.4 trillion UK debt, has apparently failed to win support for its message.

Only 9 per cent of those questioned believe the SNP, under Alex Salmond, has been most honest with them over cuts.

Labour came out ahead for honesty, with 22 per cent support – still fewer than one in four voters – while only 14 per cent thought the Liberal Democrats or the Tories had been the most honest about cuts, after giving little detail in their responses to the Budget.

Of those voters polled, 47 per cent believed the national debt should be paid off by reducing government spending, compared with 34 per cent who thought there should be higher taxes instead. This suggests that even in Scotland, where public sector employment is proportionally the highest in the UK, Mr Darling will win backing for what he has described as "deeper cuts than Thatcher's", despite SNP efforts to attack such action.

Mr Brown will tell Labour Party activists in Glasgow today that "Britain faces the biggest choice for a generation" and will promise to deliver fairness and renewal.

"The choice is real, the risks are real, the consequences are real," he is expected to say. "If we get it wrong, we face an age of austerity. If we get it right, we can achieve an age of shared prosperity. Elections are choices for the future."

The Prime Minister will use his argument on the economy to tackle the choice between independence and staying in the Union.

"Everybody knows that it was within the Union that Scottish homes, jobs, businesses and deposits were saved," he will say. "Everybody knows that we are stronger together than we could ever be apart."

And following the scandal over former Labour Cabinet ministers allegedly offering their services to the highest bidder, he is expected to add: "We will always put people first – before personal interest, our party interest, or any vested interest. We will renew this nation – not for our own benefit or the benefit of a narrow section or clique – but for all the people of this country we love.

"Our message is clear: Labour is on your side. We are for the hard-working majority. And if you give us the chance, we will fight for your future – not just in this springtime of choice, but in every season of our country's life."

However, criticisms that this week's Budget was aimed at the Labour core vote, with "Robin Hood" measures to rob the rich and give to the poor, appear to have been confirmed by our poll.

While almost half of Scots thought they would be worse off, 37 per cent thought it would make no difference to them.

There was a negative view of how the Budget affected Scotland, with 30 per cent saying it was bad for the country and only 5 cent good. Almost half, 46 per cent, said it would make no difference.

After Mr Darling's refusal to produce a new stimulus package in his Budget to bolster the fragile recovery, the SNP argued it was the only party that supported the idea of cutting spending later.

This was a message picked up in a party political broadcast by First Minister Alex Salmond last night. "What we know is that Labour and Tory plans for Scotland's budget this year are effectively one and the same," he said. "They both agree on the same budget cut for Scotland. A cut of almost 400 million. Labour cuts and Tory cuts – they are now the same."

He went on: "Cuts that the Chancellor yesterday admitted would be 'tougher and deeper' than those implemented by Margaret Thatcher. Cuts in Scotland's budget almost three times the size of the cuts for the UK. And they both reject much-needed stimulus for our economy."

On the question of The Scotsman's poll, opposition politicians argued that, while support was likely to be higher in Labour's Scottish heartlands than the rest of the UK, the government could not hide from the fact that almost half of Scots thought they would be worse off.

The Lib Dems' Scottish affairs spokesman, Alistair Carmichael, said: "The vast majority of Scots will be worse off under Labour's Budget."

Shadow Scottish secretary David Mundell said: "With nearly half of Scots believing the Budget made no difference, it is clear people have not been taken in."

And he argued that the poll was an endorsement of Tory policies.

"People support Conservative proposals to spend less rather than raise taxes, but people also know that it was Labour that got us into this mess," he said.

A second poll, by ComRes UK, done after the Budget, found 33 per cent of those asked trusted Mr Brown and Mr Darling most on the economy, with 27 per cent for the Tory team of David Cameron and George Osborne, and 13 per cent for Lib Dems Nick Clegg and Vince Cable.

The results – and recent UK polls suggesting Labour had closed the gap on the Tories to only two percentage points and opened a lead of four points in key marginals – have led some to suggest the Conservatives are in trouble. On Channel 4 last night, Michael Heseltine, a former Conservative deputy prime minister, said he was betting on a hung parliament. "That is because the Conservatives have to be so far ahead in order to win an overall majority of one," he said.