Liam Burns: Decline shows moves to deter 'fee refugees' are premature

Figures showing ever-increasing numbers of university applications have become a trademark of this recession as more and more people see a university education as their best way to survive the downturn.

The further increase in applications announced this week - in Scotland over 2,000 more people have applied than had at this time in 2010 - comes on top of already unprecedented levels of applicants in previous years. It's clear that universities and the Scottish Government need to come together to meet as much of this increased demand as possible, and we must also increase the financial help that students get once they get to college or university.

However, the latest figures mask a new trend for Scottish universities: a serious decline in the number of English applicants. We have to wait to see if this will be a similarly enduring trend, but the key question for now is: What could be putting them off?

This could be a first sign of the impact of increased fees and public spending cuts on decisions to study, or not to study, at university.

Fees for English students in Scotland are set by the Scottish Parliament and are lower than students pay now in England, but it would be no surprise if the hugely negative message sent by the UK coalition government to these potential students - 9,000 fees and 80 per cent public spending cuts - is having its effect. After all, the early impact of the new fee regime is also reflected in a notable slowdown in applications from young English students to study at English universities.

It could also be that talk of large fee hikes for any English students coming here has filtered through to the rest of the UK, creating uncertainty over what the students may be asked to pay in future.

It seems clear that much more consideration is needed before any sudden changes are made to levels of fees for students from the rest of the UK in Scotland. NUS Scotland is entirely against tuition fees in Scotland, regardless of where you come from.

Whatever is causing this decrease in demand from English students, it's clear that assertions from the Scottish Government's green paper that fees must be more than trebled to deter "fee refugees" from outside Scotland are premature at best, and at worst are brought into serious question.

lLiam Burns is the president of NUS Scotland.