Labour clings to slim advantage over SNP

Polling company ComRes studied all the unpublished Scottish data from UK polls in June and July and found that Labour is just ahead of the SNP, with 32 per cent of the vote, next to the SNP's 30 per cent.

The poll, which asked for voters' intentions for Westminster, put the Conservatives on 17 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats fourth on 15 per cent.

The SNP's rise since the 2005 election and Labour's subsequent fall means the Nationalists have dramatically narrowed the gap in Westminster voting intentions between the two, from 22 per cent four years ago to just 2 per cent today.

But analysts say that the SNP will claim only an additional three or four seats as a reward. Separate polling released yesterday suggests that the SNP may also lose one of its six seats to the Conservatives.

Alex Salmond declared last year that the SNP would attempt to win 20 seats at the general election, a result he hoped would provide him with the balance of power in the post-election fallout.

However, the first-past-the-post system, which rewards Labour for its concentrated support in its Central Belt heartlands, could thwart Mr Salmond's ambitions.

The poll analysis shows that Labour and the Lib Dems are the main losers since the 2005 elections, both seeing their vote shrink by 7.5 per cent.

Meanwhile, the SNP is up by 12.3 per cent, while the Conservatives have risen by 1.2 per cent on their 2005 showing.

John Curtice, a professor of politics at Strathclyde University, claimed last night that, despite the major changes in support from 2005, the figures would not lead to any seismic shift in the number of seats each party wins next year. Of Scotland's 59 Westminster seats, Labour currently holds 41, the Lib Dems 11, the SNP six and the Conservatives one.

Prof Curtice said that, on a uniform swing, the SNP would pick up only three more seats from Labour – in Dundee West, Ochil and Kilmarnock.

And using method of calculation based on measuring national swings against local results suggests the SNP would also pick up Aberdeen North from Labour. The SNP used the same method last year, when its support was higher, to suggest they were on course to win 33 seats in Scotland.

Another poll published yesterday suggested that the SNP could lose Perth and North Perthshire to the Conservatives.

The survey, conducted in 30 of the most marginal seats in the country, put the Tories on 44 per cent across the UK, well ahead of Labour on 20 per cent, with the LibDems on 18 per cent.

The poll, by Crosby/Textor/Pepper, found that voters in marginal seats overwhelmingly chose the economy as the most important issue for the government, followed by health and education.

Referring to the latest ComRes analysis, an SNP spokesman said: "This is an excellent survey, showing that the general election in Scotland is a two-horse race, and is currently neck-and-neck between the SNP and Labour. These figures show that the SNP can also win a UK general election in Scotland, and return a block of SNP MPs to protect and promote Scottish interests at Westminster."

Scottish Labour campaign chief, Gordon Banks, MP, said: "These are encouraging results, but the only poll that really matters is the general election.

"The straight choice at the election will be Labour or the Conservatives. Either Gordon Brown or David Cameron will be the next prime minister."

A Conservative spokesman last night hit out at any attempt to draw conclusions.

Prof Curtice said that, on the poll's findings, the Tories would fail to win any more seats beyond the one they already hold. However, the Conservatives are increasingly confident of gaining seats – including the East Renfrewshire seat of Labour Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy.

A Tory spokesman said: "The poll of polls is misleading, because it does not take into account the pockets of strong Conservative support in certain constituencies across Scotland."

He added: "While we are strong in some areas of the country, we are very weak in others."

However, Prof Curtice said both Chancellor Alastair Darling and Mr Murphy, who are facing strong challenges from the Conservatives, would survive.

No-one from the LibDems was available for comment.

LEADING ISSUES

JOHN Prescott last night accused Harriet Harman of raising the issue of Labour's leadership at a time when "we should all be pulling together", after the deputy leader said there should never again be a men-only team at the top of the party.

Ms Harman, who is standing in for the Prime Minister this week while he is on holiday, said she could not trust an all-male team at the top, because "men cannot be left to run things on their own".

Labour insiders said last night that Ms Harman was speaking out now to pre-empt any suggestion that, should Labour lose the election, she must stand down with Gordon Brown.

Meanwhile, Blairite supporters were reported to want Lord Mandelson to resign his peerage so he could be found a seat in the Commons, from where to launch a leadership bid.

A Mandelson spokesman dismissed it as a "silly season" story.