John Whitesides: Democrats look more and more likely to lose Congress

Democrats look more and more likely to lose Congress

An UNRELENTINGLY sour mood among US voters has steadily eroded support for President Barack Obama's Democrats, putting the party's grip on Congress at growing risk ahead of the 2 November mid-term election.

Worries about the economy and plummeting confidence in Mr Obama have Democrats on the defensive in dozens of once-safe races, sparking new predictions of a 1994-style sweep that would restore Republicans to power in the House of Representatives and even the Senate.

"A big wave for Republicans is almost guaranteed in November barring some cataclysmic event," said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato, who recently increased his projected Republican gains in the House to 47 seats - enough to win a majority.

"The political climate for Democrats has deteriorated badly over the summer. The rotten economy and President Obama's failure to turn it around is killing Democrats."

The stubbornly high national unemployment rate and fears of a double-dip recession have sparked wide public anxiety.

This year, Republicans must gain 39 House seats and ten Senate seats to reclaim majorities in each chamber, with a switch of power in the House considered increasingly likely and in the Senate a growing possibility.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report is monitoring 120 potentially competitive House races, 102 held by Democrats. It lists 73 Democratic seats as toss-ups or highly competitive, up from 68 two weeks ago and 39 at the beginning of the year.

In the Seante, Republicans need to sweep nearly all of the most competitive races to recapture a majority. While still difficult, some analysts also see that as increasingly possible.

"I still don't think the Republicans get a majority in the Senate, but you can start to see more clearly how it could happen," said Jennifer Duffy, Senate analyst for the Cook Report, who predicts Republican gains of seven to nine seats.

Mr Obama has seen his approval ratings slide below 50 per cent over the summer, while the number of Americans who believe the country is on the wrong track has climbed to above 60 per cent in most polls.

On a key measure of potential voter turnout, a recent Gallup poll found 54 per cent of Republicans saying they have given quite a lot or some thought to the elections, against just 30 per cent of Democrats.

Steven Schier, a political scientist at Carleton College in Minnesota, said: "Every indicator and every measure points in one direction, and that is in favour of Republicans."

Democratic officials insist their prospects will improve once voters are engaged and evaluate the two parties. They say Republicans, pushed to the right by conservative "Tea Party" candidates, have drifted out of the mainstream.

"We are going to hold the House of Representatives and we are going to hold the Senate," said Representative John Larson, head of the Democratic House caucus.

l John Whitesides is a writer for the Reuters news agency