Independent Scotland 'would face £8bn deficit'

SCOTLAND would lose up to £8 billion a year in revenue if it became independent, one of the UK’s top politics academics warns today.

Iain McLean, professor of politics at Oxford University, says that while Scots are entitled to vote for independence, they should be aware of the consequences.

He claims that the SNP is basing its economic arguments on "very dodgy foundations" and warns that an independent Scottish government would have to cope with between 4.4 billion and 8 billion less than the Executive has at the moment.

Prof McLean’s critique of SNP policy is being applauded by Labour managers, who said the academic was merely affirming what they had been arguing for some time.

But he was rubbished by Jim Mather, the SNP’s economics spokesman, who derided Prof McLean for being "hopelessly negative" and locked into a "dependency culture".

Prof McLean’s assessment is published today in Scotland 2020: a selection of essays from the independent think-tank Demos.

He says the SNP’s arguments are based on the flawed assumption that North Sea oil revenues would remain healthy and would come to Scotland.

"But they would not all flow to Scotland; they fluctuate wildly [between 1 billion and 5 billion a year in the last decade] and they are in long-term decline," he says.

Prof McLean says an independent Scotland would start with a deficit of between 4.4 billion and 8 billion because of the difference between the money raised in Scotland - including 70 per cent of oil revenues - and the money currently spent.

And he adds: "I am all for Scotland having full fiscal independence. But the Scots should choose it in the full awareness of what it would involve."