Incomers set to keep Scots house prices rising

More than half the homes sold by Knight Frank this year were to buyers from England and most properties went for over 400,000.

Thousands more people living south of the Border are lining up to pay similar prices for a home in Scotland.

While house prices are forecast to fall by as much as 30% in England, Knight Frank predict they will continue to rise in Scotland.

"I can’t see prices falling in Scotland because of the pent-up demand from down south. I expect a slight increase of 2-3%," said Colin Strang Steel, director of the company.

"In some areas there will be bigger increases. People do not realise there is still so much pent-up demand. A lot of people want to come to Scotland. Prices have gone up by 20-30% in Scotland this year, and I do not see it falling in 2003."

In Edinburgh, the average price of a home is now 124,000, but Strang Steel said many property investors from London were now targeting the area because they could get better rental ratios than in London.

"A 150,000 flat in Edinburgh will realise a letting income of around 10,000-a-year. In London a similar flat will cost a lot more and people cannot increasingly let it for long periods - or are too heavily geared against falling rental incomes," said Strang Steel.

"I know of one development where all the buyers were people who bought to rent. None were going to live in the flats.

"But most of the English influx coming to Scotland are usually young families, those working in the financial sector or, surprisingly, farmers.

"We have just sold a 1,400-acre livestock farm near Hawick to somebody from England. There were over 20 bids and it went for well in excess of its 650,000 asking price.

"Due to foot and mouth there is a shortage of sheep and at the moment there is a demand to invest in that sector.

"Housing demand is also strong. The majority of homes we sold this year were for over 400,000."

Edinburgh-based Knight Frank said 60% of its quality homes went to English buyers who paid between 400,000 and 1.5m for their des res in Scotland. The agents say that as well as Edinburgh, East Lothian, the Borders, Perthshire and parts of East Fife, again being the most sought-after areas, new hot spots are developing.

The switch from stock market investments into property has seen homes in Dumfries and Galloway soar by 22% this year and big rises have also been logged in Glasgow, Aberdeen and the Highlands.

Bargains will be harder to find, but the West Coast still offer some. "High crime, rail strikes, the fear of terrorism are all factors. Even the prospect of free personal care for the elderly in Scotland has become an attractive incentive," said Strang Steel.

The other factor was the Scottish private education system, with many wanting to educate their children in top schools like Fettes. Strang Steel added that the main demand was for five or six-bedroom houses near an airport or railway.