Ian Swanson: City's no done deal

After a dramatic landslide victory handed the SNP a majority at Holyrood, Ian Swanson looks ahead to ask whether council elections could see a similar outcome

SCOTLAND is still getting used to the shock outcome of the Holyrood elections three weeks ago.

SNP leaders have admitted that never in their wildest dreams did they imagine winning a clear overall majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament. The opposition parties, decimated, demoralised and in search of new leaders, are no doubt feeling some relief that they do not face another election for five years.

But in just 12 months there will be other elections - in Edinburgh and across Scotland - to elect local councils.

So what could the SNP's landslide victory on May 5 mean for the future control of the Capital?

At the last city council elections in 2007 - the first to use the Single Transferable Vote (STV) - Labour's 23-year spell in charge of the Capital was ended when the Liberal Democrats emerged as the largest party and formed a coalition with the SNP.

But the SNP's success at those elections came as something of a surprise because Edinburgh has traditionally not been the most fruitful territory for the party.

The fact the 2007 elections were on the same day as the Holyrood elections allowed SNP council candidates to benefit from the "time for a change" mood which ushered Alex Salmond's minority government into office.

But with the parliament and council elections now "de-coupled", will the strength of the SNP's appeal begin to fade by this time next year?

The SNP has now set itself the aim of becoming the biggest party on the city council. But the Nationalists say they are taking nothing for granted.

One senior figure says: "Labour convinced themselves after winning a good vote in last year's Westminster elections that the same thing would happen at Holyrood and it didn't. We won't make the same mistake.

"We're encouraged by the vote, but we are not seeing it as a done deal. We'll be fighting for every vote."

Labour claims that record will not win the SNP the election. One Labour insider says: "The SNP's appeal at the Scottish Parliament elections - that it had done a good job and should be given more time - is not going to work at the council elections. Neither party has done a good job."

Labour takes heart from the fact that, despite the SNP's dramatic victory, its own vote in the city held up relatively well and also from the evidence that voters do not behave in the same way at all elections.

"People have shown they are willing to vote differently at different elections. Next year people will look at the record of councillors."

The Lib Dems' disastrous result at the Holyrood elections - cut from 16 MSPs to just five - suggests they are unlikely to retain their position.

One senior Lib Dem acknowledges the party faces "a tough, tough fight".

"In the past Lib Dems were held up as having slightly more integrity, but now people are saying 'You're like all the rest'. A lot of it goes back to tuition fees - Labour introduced them, the Tories would have hiked them higher, but people expected better of us."

So the key factor in next year's elections could be how those disillusioned Lib Dem supporters decide to vote.

After getting three councillors elected in 2007, the Greens have established themselves as players at the City Chambers and could be an obvious home for ex-Lib Dem voters.

And despite losing the Pentlands seat to the SNP three weeks ago, the Tories have more of a bedrock of support in Edinburgh than in many other parts of Scotland, so they too could reasonably hope to improve on their current 11 seats on the city council.

Or fed-up Lib Dems could do as they appear to have done at the Holyrood election and transfer to the SNP.

However, the STV voting system, with its multi-member wards, could work to the Lib Dems' advantage - provided the other parties do not put up extra candidates.

An insider explains: "For any of the major parties, the system can provide a safety net so long as there are only four main candidates and four seats available, but it does become more complicated for the weakest party if any of the other major parties decides to field two candidates."

One of the most important factors in the SNP's Holyrood victory was the appeal to re-elect Alex Salmond as First Minister.

So could there be a Steve Cardownie factor at the council elections?

A senior Labour figure says: "We must not underestimate the SNP - just because we think Steve Cardownie is awful, doesn't mean the voters agree."

But the Nationalists say they will not be turning their group leader into an election-winning personality.

"It's not the same at council level," say an SNP insider. "Nobody knows who would be leader of the administration because these positions are not determined until after the election."