Half a million more people to live in Scotland in next 25 years

The figure equates to a 10 per cent increase – more than half a million people – over a quarter of a century.

The National Records of Scotland expects 25,000 more people to move to the country than leave it this year.

Recent migration has been higher than expected, leading forecasters to add 5,500 a year to future estimates.

The population is also expected to grow naturally by 6,000 this year, as the number of babies born outstrips deaths.

Both of those figures are expected to drop, but net migration is expected to hit 18,000-a-year in 2015 and then plateau.

According to predictions it will be 2028 before the number of people dying catches up with the birth rate.

Looking much further into the future, the report suggests the Scottish population will go above 6.3 million by the turn of the next century.

Kirsty MacLachlan, senior statistician at National Records of Scotland, said: “The latest projections suggest a bigger rise in Scotland’s population than we expected when we published our previous set of projections two years ago.

“That’s because the birth rate has remained high and migration has risen again in the last two years.

“These factors have raised the starting-point for our new figures. They also suggest that Scotland’s population will continue to rise.”

She added: “The new projections indicate that Scotland’s population may have reached its highest ever level this year, rising above the 1974 record of 5.24 million.

“But we will have to wait for the census results published next year to get a more accurate estimate of the current population.”

Life expectancy is also expected to grow steadily. A male baby born today in Scotland has an average life expectancy of 76.1. That is expected to grow to 78.4 by 2020, and reach 81 by 2035.

Baby girls currently have an average life expectancy of 80.7. That is expected to reach 82.8 by 2020, and 85.2 by 2035.

That ageing population is expected to present a challenge to governments as they try to plan budgets and meet health needs, while at the same time the balance between the working age population, and those relying on pensions, changes.

The working age population is expected to increase from 3.27 million at present, to 3.45 million by 2020.

At the same time the number of under-16s will rise from 0.91 million to 0.96 million, and the pensioner population will go up from 1.04 million to 1.07 million.

However, the number of pensioners will then increase much more rapidly to 1.32 million by 2035 – 26 per cent higher than it is today.

The dependency ratio – those too young or old to work, against those of working age – will rise from 60 in 100 now, to 64 in 100 by 2035.

However, the Scottish Government insisted growing life expectancy was a cause for celebration, even if it does present challenges.

A spokesman said: “An increased number of people of pensionable age reflects improved standards of living, public health activity and the success of health improvement initiatives in Scotland.

“We do recognise that an ageing population presents challenges to our health and social care system, which is why we are working with partners to radically reshape the provision of care for older people and are insisting on the highest quality care for every older person, every time.

“This requires a step change in the integration of health and social care and in joint working with other agencies and the voluntary sector.

“We are determined to ensure that older people are at the centre of delivery and that a high-quality system of social care in Scotland continues to be delivered.”

The UK’s population, meanwhile, is on course to reach 70 million within 16 years, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Within 25 years, the UK population is set to swell from 62.3 million, last year, to 73.2 million, with more than two-thirds of this increase a result of immigration.

The world’s population is about to hit 7 billion.

But the Catholic Church’s ban on contraception is not responsible for the current boom, the United Nations has said.

Safiye Cagar, director of information and external relations at the UN Population Fund, said: “In Catholic countries like Italy, Spain or Malta people are still using contraceptives like condoms, so the Church ban is not having an impact.

“Besides, the population growth in Catholic countries is limited compared to other parts of world.”

Ninety-eight per cent of sexually active Catholic women have used contraception banned by the Church, according a recent report by the Guttmacher Institute, a non-profit sexual health research organisation.