Gaddafi could fall 'by end of month'

COLONEL Muammar Gaddafi's regime will topple quickly and may even be gone by the end of August, the UK head of Libya's transitional council has claimed on the eve of a visit to Scotland today.

Dr Guma el-Gamaty said he believed that the impact of Ramadan, which would see the people of the country "spiritually and emotionally highly charged" could be the catalyst for the dictator's fall from power.

Predicting that a tipping point will soon be reached, where Libyans realise that the regime has lost authority and power, el-Gamaty said the end could come within the next two weeks.

The impact of Britain's recognition of the country had been a "huge boost" to the rebel cause, he said, demonstrating that Gaddafi was no longer someone with whom to do business.

He also said that the option for Gaddafi to leave the country with immunity for another Arab nation was still open.

"My only guess for the end game is that once Gaddafi realises he has lost control of every city outside Tripoli and that he is surrounded, then I think he will make a run for it," he said.

"I think then the situation will be very, very rapid."

El-Gamaty was speaking ahead of his visit to Glasgow this afternoon, when he will address Scotland's Libyan community on the progress being made by the rebel forces.

Organised by the Middle East and North Africa Forum in Scotland, the meeting is expected to raise funds for the refugees caught up in turmoil both inside and outside Libya.

Yesterday, it emerged that the rebels in western Libya had advanced to within 15 miles of the strategically crucial coastal city of Zawiyah after a six-hour battle with Gaddafi's forces, who were pushed back five miles in the fighting.

If the rebels were to take the city, it would cut off the coastal highway to Tunisia which links Tripoli - Gaddafi's stronghold - to the outside world.

An assault on the city is expected early this week, with reports suggesting yesterday that the rebel advance was being aided significantly by Nato air support.

El-Gamaty said last night: "Definitely, the momentum is on our side. We are making advances. Gaddafi has never managed to regain any territory he has lost. He is losing his grip.

"I think once we have reached the tipping point, the collapse will be pretty fast and it could seriously come this month, in August. This is the month of Ramadan, the people are spiritually and emotionally highly charged, and eager to conclude this battle and get rid of this evil regime."

He said that the "end game" would most likely be when Gaddafi realised he was surrounded. "I think then he will make a run for it. I think then the situation will be very, very rapid," he said.

If Gaddafi does admit defeat, el-Gamaty said the option of him going to another Arab country would be open "to the last moment".

He said that momentum for the Libyan rebel cause had been given a "huge political and psychological boost" by Britain's decision to recognise the National Transitional Council as the responsible authority in Libya.He said: "Here is a major country like the UK saying very clearly that Gaddafi is part of the past and that we are dealing with the NTC.

"It shows that the UK sees no way back for Gaddafi. I think the international community has been very strong in sending a message to Gaddafi that nobody in the world wants to do business with him.

"Psychologically and politically it is very important. It sends a message to all those around him that they are fighting a losing battle."

Today's appearance in Scotland by el-Gamaty is the first he has made to talk to the country's Libyan community since the uprising began.

Pauline McNeill, who is chairing the talk in Glasgow, said: "The Libyan community need the support of Scots in this difficult time.

"This is a golden opportunity to learn about the prospect of democracy in Libya."