Scotland's fishing industry to face climate change challenge

Scotland's fishing industry is set to face major challenges due to the impact of climate change, according to new research.

New research suggests important catch species could vanish from Scotland's west coast waters

Scientists at the Scottish Association for Marine Science (Sams) are predicting that global warming could cause commercially important fish such as cod, herring and haddock to vanish from waters off the west coast by the turn of the century.

They say the fish are likely to migrate northwards to escape rising sea temperatures, causing collapse of local fisheries.

Study leader Dr Natalia Serpetti, a marine ecologist at Sams, says the results highlight the importance of considering environmental conditions alongside fishing quotas when aiming to achieve sustainable fisheries.

“Our results showed that warmer climate could jeopardise sustainable fishery management,” she said

“Rising temperature showed strong negative impact on cold-water species such as grey seals, cod, haddock and herring, which all declined by 2100 under the worst-case climate-warming scenario.

“Even under the best-case climate-change scenario, cod and herring stocks were predicted to collapse off Scotland’s west coast.”

The report shows cod and herring off Scotland’s west coast are already nearing the edge of their temperature tolerance range, with populations predicted to crash in coming decades.

However, it’s believed numbers of saithe, hake and whiting, which are less affected by water temperature, will gradually increase to replace the lost species.

Surveys suggest communities of saithe and hake off the Scottish west coast increased fourfold.

Dr Serpetti’s research examines how rising temperatures will affect 41 groups of species, from top predators such as whales and seals to many fish species and animals such as crabs and snails.

She said cod, whiting and herring stocks that had declined due to intense fishing and predation recovered under sustainable fishery management. However, when tested under projected climate change scenarios, cold-water species stocks collapse.

A Scottish Government spokesman said: “We recognise that climate change is a major threat to our marine ecosystems and will continue to follow scientific advice to support a sustainable fishing industry. Scotland is recognised as being at the forefront of the global fight against climate change and continues to lead the UK in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”

The Scottish Fishermen’s Federation declined to comment on the latest findings.