Scotland not on course for 'just transition' says Scottish Government advisory group

Significant further action is needed to ensure Scotland’s just transition to a low carbon economy, according to the annual report of the group tasked with overseeing progress.

Much more work needs to be done to ensure a 'just transition' for workers when the Grangemouth oil refinery closes (Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)

Scotland’s Just Transition Commission said action including meaningful support was needed for workers facing job losses at Grangemouth and offshore as the country moves away from fossil fuels, as well as changes to public procurement rules, and clarity on how significant new revenue streams associated with renewables expansion will benefit the public.

The Commission is an independent expert advisory group with members drawn from business, industry, trade unions, environmental and community groups and academia, and is tasked with making an annual assessment of progress.

Today’s report concludes that “the current path will not deliver a just transition”, citing potential redundancies at Grangemouth and offshore as “an early litmus test” for the credibility of just transition as a “national mission”.

Last month the Commission warned it was “deeply concerned” the closure of the Grangemouth oil refinery in 2025 “risks a repeat of previous unmanaged industrial transitions in coal and steel”. It called for “a credible just transition plan that ensures employment levels and economic activity within the community are protected”.

“We are at a critical juncture now,” says the report. “The architecture for success has taken shape over recent years through the painstaking effort and foresight of a great many people across government, commerce and civil society. What is required now is transformative leadership that delivers the tangible progress that will give vital early proof of concept.”

Citing the effects of Storm Babet, the Commission’s report says practical measures needed to adapt to climate impacts will be an important part of Scotland’s just transition. A new Scottish National Adaptation Plan is expected to be prepared next year.

On investment, the report warns: “New and innovative investment models are needed. Scotland’s just transition will not be funded by the current approach. If investment provision is left to the market alone, we will see an unjust transition.”

Co-chair Satwat Rehman said: “Our report today has a clear message. The next big steps in tackling the climate emergency will change many aspects of our everyday lives, whether that’s about how we work, how we get around, the food we eat, how we heat our homes.

"This is a huge opportunity for policymakers to address inequalities, but there is a real risk these will instead continue to widen. Fairness isn’t a reason to water down or delay climate action. It must be a driver to go further and faster, backed by the practical actions we know will deliver a just transition."