COP26: How severe drought can increase Brazil's carbon emissions

Brazil is experiencing the worst drought since rain measurements began in 1931.

Heavily reliant on hydropower, this crisis raises the threat of a power blackout, so the government has been progressively resorting to thermoelectric plants, which is much more expensive and polluting.

The rain shortage began in 2019 and intensified last February.

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The drought, which put the most heavily populated region in Brazil on a water emergency alert, can increase carbon emissions by worsening wildfires and impairing transport in major waterways.

But it directly affects emissions by the energy sector because when the country's water reservoir levels are critical, energy generation is offset by gas-powered thermoelectric plants.

In October last year, 70 per cent of all the electrical energy consumed in Brazil came from hydro plants and only 17 per cent from thermal power stations.

As of now, according to the National Electric Systems Operator, the amount of hydropower dropped to 52 per cent, while nearly one third (31 per cent) of the energy is coming from thermoelectric plants – that also need water for their cooling systems.

A demonstration of the severe drought crippling Brazil. Picture: Gilson AbreuA demonstration of the severe drought crippling Brazil. Picture: Gilson Abreu
A demonstration of the severe drought crippling Brazil. Picture: Gilson Abreu

"Undoubtedly, emissions from the electricity sector in this period when thermoelectric plants are being heavily operated will increase significantly,” says Mauricio Tolmasquim, a professor at the Graduate School of Engineering at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.

"That happens because the bulk of them are fossil fuel thermoelectric plants, which emit carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide and various other gases that are both local pollutants of the atmosphere and are considered greenhouse gases."

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s latest report, the climate crisis is already making droughts more severe.

An eolic plant in Icaraí. Picture: Ari VersianiAn eolic plant in Icaraí. Picture: Ari Versiani
An eolic plant in Icaraí. Picture: Ari Versiani

Forecasts for most of Brazil, which has lost 15 per cent of its freshwater surface in the past 30 years, are of a warmer and drier climate. That means the situation in the next decades could be even worse than what is happening now.

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Suzana Kahn, researcher of UFRJ's Energy Planning Program, says: "Depending on one energy source is very worrying, be it hydroelectric or any other. The best alternative is to always seek supplementary energy sources.

"Wind power has already been fulfilling this [diversifying] role a little, but solar is still very incipient in Brazil, which is a contradiction given the solar potential that the country presents.

"Today wind accounts for 16 per cent of the total energy generated, while solar represents a meagre 0.25 per cent.”

Journalist Jéssica MaesJournalist Jéssica Maes
Journalist Jéssica Maes

However, at the same time Brazil president Jair Bolsonaro's government decided to cut subsidies for solar and eolic plants, it approved a law for the construction of new gas-fired thermal power stations.

The 8,000mW produced in these plants could increase up to 30 per cent the emissions of the Brazilian electric sector, according to the Energy and Environment Institute.

"Consumers are also indirectly affected and end up having to pay for this inflationary effect generated by the increase in tariffs,” says Mauricio Tolmasquim, former president and CEO of Empresa de Pesquisa Energética, an affiliate of Brazil's Ministry of Mines and Energy.

Since it needs fuels, such as gas and oil, instead of resources freely available in nature, like wind, thermoelectric energy is also very expensive. This translates in costlier energy bills for the population, which can be a big burden in an economy still reeling from the Covid-19 pandemic.

- Jéssica Maes is a journalist and producer of Folha de S.Paulo podcasts. This article is part of The Scotsman and Earth Journalism Network partnership, set up by global non-profit organisation Internews.

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