Coalition big guns split over Afghan exit timetable

NATO leaders are divided over the speed with which they can start handing parts of Afghanistan back to Afghan forces, it emerged yesterday, as US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, acknowledged there were widespread doubts on "whether success is even possible".

• Afghan foreign minister Zalmai Rasool, Hillary Clinton and William Hague applaud at the end of the Kabul conference. Picture: Getty

President Hamid Karzai reaffirmed his commitment to have Afghan forces in the lead by 2014, at a major international conference in Kabul - but Nato's top commander in Afghanistan, General David Petraeus, and the coalition's Secretary General, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, are split on how soon the process can start, The Scotsman has learned.

Sources close to both men said there had been tense talks in the last week, culminating in an acrimonious video conference between Kabul and Brussels where the two men laid their disagreements bare.

Mr Rasmussen, the former Danish prime minister, wants the safest provinces to be "transitioned" within the next few months - ahead of a Nato summit in Lisbon, scheduled for November 20. Sources close to General Petraeus said the American commander, who assumed command in Kabul three weeks ago when his predecessor was fired, wants to wait until summer 2011.

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The divisions come as two American civilians were killed in the north of the country yesterday - in one of the country's safest provinces - when a rogue Afghan soldier turned his gun on them at a firing range near Mazar-e Sharif. It is the second time in just eight days that renegade Afghan soldiers have attacked their international mentors, raising serious questions about the calibre and integrity of the Nato-trained force.

Sources familiar with the split say it stems from a divergent reading of the security situation, a different understanding of the Afghan army's strength - and very different political pressures on the two men. "It's as if (Rasmussen's] people have been getting him to believe we are further on than we are," said a military source in Kabul.

"He expects us to be much closer to transition than we are."

Kabul has already been handed over to Afghan forces. The next provinces in line are the Panjshir, north of Kabul, Bamiyan, in the central highlands, and Nangahar in the east.

A civilian strategist said Mr Rasmussen was eager to honour an agreement from the last Nato summit, in Estonia in April, where the coalition ministers agreed to start transition by the end of 2010. "They were supposed to announce the first tranche of places handed over to Afghan security control in time for the Lisbon summit," said an official. "That's not going to happen. Petraeus doesn't care about Lisbon."

General Petraeus, on the other hand, wants to link transition to the planned military draw down in July 2011, the source said. Staff at his headquarters said he was more concerned about the Congressional hearings on Afghanistan in December, and an Afghanistan review in January 2011.

Prime Minister David Cameron said 2014 was still a realistic target for the Afghans to take over. Foreign Secretary William Hague, who was in Kabul yesterday, said he hoped British forces will have ceased all combat operations by 2015.

Mr Hague told the conference that transition was an integral part of Afghanistan's long-term security and he stressed the need for it to happen quickly. But pushed to set a date, he seemed to fall between Petraeus' and Rasmussen's positions.

"It would be good if this year we could point to districts that would be handed over, but I don't think we can go further than that," he said.

Some Afghans fear the government will unravel and the security institutions will fracture if Nato leaves prematurely, plunging the country into civil war.

Mr Rasmussen told representatives from more than 60 countries gathered in Kabul yesterday, that, "transition will be based on conditions, not calendars" and he vowed the coalition would, "never allow the Taleban to overthrow the elected Government by force". "We will stand by the Afghan people for the long term," he said.

Secretary Clinton acknowledged that the road ahead would not be easy. "Citizens of many nations represented here, including my own, wonder whether success is even possible," she said. "And if so, whether we all have the commitment to achieve it. It is important to note that we are making progress.

"History will hold us accountable for our efforts and here today we must do the same for each other."