China ready to relax hated one-child rule

China marked the 30th anniversary of its one-child policy this weekend with talk of relaxing rules, at least in some provinces, that have reined in population growth, but caused heartache for millions of couples.

With a population expected to peak at 1.65 billion in 2033, China has been cautious about dropping an unpopular policy that was originally supposed to last one generation.

Central planners say the one-child policy has spared China from the pressures of hundreds of millions of additional people that would have strained scarce water and food resources, as well as the nation's ability to educate and employ them.

Critics cite forced abortions and sterilisations, punitive enforcement and a widening gender gap as the unwelcome legacy.

Millions of baby girls are believed to have been aborted in a country which traditionally favours male heirs.

China already allows a number of exceptions to the policy, including allowing rural families a second child if the first is a girl, and permitting couples in some cities a second child if both parents had no siblings.

"If population control reaches the expected goal, Guangdong is likely to let couples in which one of the two is an only child to have a second child after the Twelfth Five-Year Plan," Zhang Feng, director of Guangdong Population and Family Planning Commission, said.

Guangdong, Near Hong Kong, is home to about 100 million people and the Twelfth Five-Year Plan runs until 2015.

After 2030, Mr Zhang said, any Guangdong couple could have two children.

As China's population ages and wages slowly rise, the government is becoming more concerned about who will take care of the elderly than about a destabilising surge of young people unable to find jobs.

The rising cost of housing and education leaves many urban couples uninterested in the big families of their ancestors, but many would still like a second child.

Earlier this year, Caijing magazine reported on a pilot progamme in five provinces next year to allow those families in which one of the couple was an only child to have a second child.

Experts worry that Beijing is unprepared for the sheer speed at which China will age. The United Nations predicts that China's working-age population will peak in 2015 and plunge by 23 per cent by 2050.

By then, there will be 438 million Chinese aged 60 or over, or 61 for every 100 adults of working age, up from just 16 in 2005, according to government figures.