'Certain defeat' in Glenrothes will undo any Brown bounce

SENIOR Labour sources last night cast the party's electoral chances in a dismal light, saying the Glenrothes by-election was already lost and warning that there was currently not a seat the government could hold anywhere in the country.

The bleak forecast came as Labour began its annual conference amid reports that its campaign for the crucial Fife poll was in turmoil after Frank Roy, the man expected to manage it, announced he was taking a holiday. A defeat at Glenrothes is likely to provoke an immediate challenge to Gordon Brown's leadership and would undo at a stroke any bounce the Prime Minister might take from either his handling of the financial crisis or a barnstorming performance at the conference in Manchester.

One source said he was sure Labour had already lost the Glenrothes by-election, caused by the death of the sitting MP, John MacDougall.

He said the absence of Mr Roy and David Cairns – the Scotland Office minister who had been co-ordinating the campaign until he was forced to resign last week after voicing concerns about the leadership – together with huge anti-Labour sentiment among voters, would make it difficult to win the seat.

He said voters were treating Labour with "contempt" on the doorstep, but he admitted this was because the party had "lost touch" with the common working man and woman. "Right now, there is not a seat we could hold in the country," said the source, who was closely involved in Labour's failed Glasgow East campaign.

Further pessimism about Labour's chances in Glenrothes came yesterday from one of the Prime Minister's closest allies.

Charlie Whelan, Mr Brown's spin doctor when he was chancellor, said telephone canvassing of Unite union members in the constituency showed a critical number were thinking of supporting the SNP.

He told a fringe meeting in Manchester that the union had spoken to its 4,000 members there and "currently the SNP are ahead".

Mr Roy, a government whip and the Motherwell and Wishaw MP, usually masterminds Labour's by-elections in Scotland and his decision to take a holiday in the United States has sparked rumours that he is frustrated with Mr Brown's leadership – a claim the party denies.

Another senior Scottish Labour figure told The Scotsman he believed Mr Roy's decision not to get involved in Glenrothes was in response to No 10's treatment of Mr Cairns. The pair, from the Blairite wing of the party, were known to be close. During the Glasgow East campaign, Mr Cairns fronted Labour's media operation, while Mr Roy, a trade unionist with 30 years' experience of Scottish politics, ran the behind-the-scenes operation.

Gordon Banks, the Ochil and South Perthshire MP who has been left running the campaign, insisted he did not feel under pressure to save Mr Brown's job.

"The election is there to be won. I know there is a lot of media speculation about the consequences, but we have got a job to focus on," he said.

The latest warnings come after polls yesterday predicted defeat for Labour at the next General Election.

Mr Brown yesterday admitted he had made mistakes as Prime Minister and promised: "I will do better." But his pledge failed to convince his most vocal party critic, the former home secretary Charles Clarke, who said he did not believe the Labour leader was capable of improving his performance and called on him to quit.

In an interview two days ahead of the crucial conference speech on which his future may depend, Mr Brown insisted he remained the right man to shepherd Britain's economy through the global financial turmoil.

He dismissed suggestions he might be out of No 10 by Christmas and insisted he would not "bail out". Far from plotting against him, his Cabinet were "pretty united", he said.

However, the Prime Minister's efforts to use the five-day Manchester gathering to shore up his position and launch a Labour fightback were undermined by a massive poll of marginal seats which predicted a landslide victory for the Tories in the next election.

The research by PoliticsHome.com, involving almost 35,000 voters across 238 marginals, projected a 146-seat majority for the Tories, with more than half of Labour MPs – including Cabinet members Jack Straw and Jacqui Smith – losing their seats. And a Sunday Times survey suggested 60 per cent of Labour supporters expect Mr Brown to lead them to general election defeat.

But another poll, for the Independent on Sunday, made more palatable reading for the PM. In it, the Tory lead had been slashed by nine points, mostly to the benefit of Lib Dems.

Senior ministers are believed to be considering a move against Mr Brown if he loses Glenrothes. The Prime Minister is to fly to the US on Wednesday and is expected to campaign in the constituency on his return later this week.

Mr Brown is going to New York to try to convince world leaders at the UN to sign up to regulations for the financial markets that he introduced in the UK last week as a result of the HBOS fall-out.

A delegation of ministers, possibly led by Mr Straw, is set to tell Mr Brown to stand down if the seat is lost.

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QUOTE OF THE DAY

"I am a pretty ordinary guy who managed through an ordinary school to get to university and then I was in a position to do the things I've been able to do"

Prime Minister Gordon Brown, sounding suspiciously like his predecessor Tony Blair's famous "I'm a pretty straight kind of guy" speech.

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• Douglas Alexander has told how in 1988, he headed over to America to help the Democrats. When he arrived, Michael Dukakis had a 14 point lead. "In a matter of days I'd turned that into a victory for George Bush."

BEST BIT OF GOSSIP

Charlie Whelan unwittingly revealed his speech notes – and his pessimism – at a Unite fringe meeting.

Those sitting near the front of the audience were treated to a clear view of his jottings.

After telling the audience the news that the SNP would win Glenrothes based on current phone canvassing, he was meant to go on to say: "But just as we fight to win the general election, we won't give up in Glenrothes." This rallying cry was visibly struck out on his speechnotes having been excised in the final cut.

Perhaps he thought he wouldn't get many takers for the coming battle?

REBEL OF THE DAY

Jon Cruddas

Tipped as a future left-wing contender, Cruddas wants a 45p top rate of income tax, a policy plan hardly guaranteed to endear him to his glorious leader and certain to frighten the voting horses.

BIGGEST SMILE

John Prescott

The former deputy leader was seen beaming while fixing Labour support stickers to women delegates' chests.

GLUMMEST FACE

Des Browne

Latest polls predict the Scottish and Defence Secretary could lose his seat in Kilmarnock and Loudoun at the next general election.