Brahma Chellaney: Chinese whispers of a power shift in Asian continent

President Barack Obama's ten-day Asian tour and the consecutive summit meetings of the East Asian Summit, the G20, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation have helped shine a spotlight on Asia's challenges at a time when tensions between an increasingly ambitious China and its neighbours permeate the region.

Significantly, Mr Obama restricted his tour to Asia's leading democracies - India, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea - which surround China and are central to managing its rise. Yet he spent all of last year assiduously courting the government in Beijing in the hope he could make China a global partner on issues ranging from climate change to trade and financial regulation.

Now, with his China strategy falling apart, Mr Obama is seeking to do exactly what his predecessor attempted - line up partners as an insurance policy in case China's rising power slides into arrogance.

A fast-rising Asia has become the fulcrum of global geopolitical change. Asian policies and challenges now help shape the international economy and security environment.

But major power shifts within Asia are challenging the continent's own peace and stability. With the spectre of strategic unbalance looming large in Asia, investments to help build geopolitical stability have become imperative.

China's lengthening shadow has prompted a number of Asian countries to start building security co-operation on a bilateral basis, laying the groundwork for a potential web of interlocking strategic partnerships. Such co-operation reflects a quiet desire to influence China's behaviour positively, so it does not cross well-defined red lines or go against the self-touted gospel of its "peaceful rise".

But building genuine partnerships is a slow process.

Despite a rapidly warming bilateral rapport and Mr Obama calling India the "cornerstone of America's engagement in Asia", conflicting expectations and interests often surface.

The US is now courting Vietnam as well, and the two countries are even negotiating a civilian nuclear deal. The Cold War legacy, however, continues to weigh down thinking in Hanoi and Washington.

Within Vietnam's ruling Communist Party, there are deep divisions over the country's relations with the US, as some Vietnamese leaders fear the Americans remain committed to regime change. After all, despite Burma's strategic importance vis--vis China and Aung San Suu Kyi's release, the US continues to enforce stringent sanctions against that country, with the aim of toppling its government. In the process, Burma has become more dependent than ever on China.

The US-China relationship itself is likely to remain uneasy, but overt competition or confrontation suits neither side. For the US, China's rising power helps validate US forward military deployments in the Asian theatre. The China factor also helps the US retain existing allies and attract new ones.

While the US is thus likely to remain a key factor in influencing Asia's strategic landscape, the role of the major Asian powers will be no less important. If China, India, and Japan constitute a scalene strategic triangle in Asia, with China representing the longest side, A, then the sum of side B (India) and side C (Japan) will always be greater than A. Not surprisingly, the fastest-growing relationship in Asia today is probably between Japan and India.

If this triangle turned into a quadrangle with the addition of Russia, China would be boxed in from virtually all sides. Japan plus Russia plus India, with the US lending a helpful hand, would not only extinguish any prospect of a Sino-centric Asia, but would create the ultimate strategic nightmare for China. As recent developments show, however, a Russian-Japanese rapprochement remains far off.

Against this geopolitical background, Asia's power dynamics are likely to remain fluid, with new or shifting alliances and strengthened military capabilities challenging the prevailing order.

That befits the year of the tiger in Chinese astrology - a year in which China roared by ratcheting up tensions with neighbours from Japan to India by escalating territorial feuds. In fact, 2010 will be remembered as the year Chinese leaders undercut their country's own interests by kindling fears of an expansionist China.

l Brahma Chellaney is professor of strategic studies at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi.