As election day draws closer, what lies ahead for Labour and Brown?

DEPENDS what you mean by "win", writes Eddie Barnes.

Given the polls, an overall Labour majority is at the outer limit of fantasy, though probably not in Mr Brown's mind.

In such a case, the Prime Minister has made it clear he intends to go on and on.

A likelier scenario is that Gordon Brown wins, but falls short of gaining a Commons majority. In this case, Mr Brown would – like Ted Heath before him – doubtless plough on as best he could.

The problem is that Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg earlier this week ruled out forming a coalition. It means that Mr Brown, as leader of the biggest party, could only realistically expect to limp on, hopeful that concessions to the Liberal Democrats (and other smaller parties) would allow him to keep on going. That would be tough, however, and a second election later this year would therefore become a distinct possibility.

Would Mr Brown step down in such a case, allowing someone else the chance to take on David Cameron?

No. With no obvious successor, and with Mr Brown still believing he is the best man for the job, he would undoubtedly have another go.

If Labour loses…

EVEN in this scenario, there are reports that Mr Brown could carry on, at least in the short-term, and especially if the Tories fail to gain an overall majority. In such a case, Mr Brown may consider his eviction from Downing Street as temporary.

With a Tory majority government in place, however, even Mr Brown would surely have to go, which would mean a leadership election, decided by an electoral college of elected members, party activists and union members. With such a huge electorate, predicting a winner is difficult.

With Blairites like James Purnell quitting, the chances of David Miliband succeeding are now looking weakened. The winner will probably come down to the person with the best organisation in the party as a whole. David's brother Ed is being spoken of as more likely to win. Experienced hands like Jack Straw, Alan Johnston or Alistair Darling could step forward as the unity candidate.

Meanwhile, Schools Secretary Ed Balls can be expected to carry the Brownite flame. But if form is anything to go by, there is a favourite. The last time this electoral college voted, for the deputy leadership in 2007, there was a clear winner – Harriet Harman.