Angela Merkel is damaged - but safe for now as challengers scarce

GERMAN chancellor Angela Merkel - smarting from her party's worst defeat in more than half a century - is scrabbling to restore her credibility after a string of mis-steps have left her disconnected from voters.

Only the lack of a strong contender to challenge her immediately keeps her safe in office, as the approval ratings tumble with each successive crisis.

Apparently deserted by her usually impressive political instincts, her CDU party suffered a colossal defeat in an important regional poll in the economic powerhouse state of Baden-Wrttemberg on Sunday.

First it was the euro and her dithering over how to save it, before deciding German taxpayers should bail out other eurozone countries. Then she backed a controversial and expensive railway project in Stuttgart which her voters didn't like. Then came the embarrassing resignation of her defence minister who cheated to gain his doctorate.

Finally, the earthquake and tsunami in Japan had an unexpected aftershock as the normally CDU-loyal voters in Baden-Wrttemberg decided they didn't believe Ms Merkel had truly abandoned plans for more nuclear power, even after her government announced plans to shut the seven oldest nuclear plants in the country in the wake of the disaster.

"It's a deep wound in the history of Baden-Wrttemberg and also in the history of the CDU," Ms Merkel said yesterday. "The pain from this loss won't go away in just one day. We'll have to work for a long time to overcome the pain from this defeat."

Capitalising on this defeat is the Green Party; revitalised and refreshed, riding high on the back of fears of nuclear power. They will now rule Baden-Wrttemberg in tandem with the social democratic SPD party - a mirror of the Gerhard Schroeder administration that governed Germany before Ms Merkel.

Nuclear power is unpopular here, but 70 per cent of voters saw Ms Merkel's zig-zagging on the issue as an electoral ploy.

The triumphant Greens said yesterday their historic gains were just the start of a campaign that would sweep the country in a "super" election year.

The only bright spot for Ms Merkel is that there are few, if any, to take her on. Most of the party strongmen have been cut down in recent years; the loss of Mr zu Guttenberg saw the end of the one real pretender to the throne.

But observers say things cannot go on as they are. Her coalition partner, Guido Westerwelle - head of the liberal FDP party and foreign minister - is loathed by the wider electorate and many of his supporters are losing patience after his failure to deliver on pledged tax cuts.

"Ms Merkel is certainly tarnished in the short term now," said Oskar Niedermayer, a political science professor at Berlin's Free University.But he said with federal elections more than two years away, it is too early to speculate about long-term damage.

Whether the Greens' success can be repeated is another question. They have long been strong in Baden-Wrttemberg and made a smart choice of candidate in the likely new governor.

Mr Niedermayer said that former teacher Winfried Kretschmann, 62, "is conservative in terms of values, a Catholic and so also electable for centre-right voters in Baden-Wrttemberg".

The nuclear issue gave the party an extra push, he said, but added: "The Greens are somewhat overvalued in terms of their results in these elections."

SHIFT AWAY FROM NUCLEAR

The election result seems likely to accelerate a German shift away from nuclear power.

Environment minister Norbert Roettgen, an ally of Chancellor Angela Merkel, fuelled the debate yesterday as he called for a quicker shutdown of the country's nuclear reactors.

Analysts believe the loss in political support for nuclear power in Baden-Wuerttemberg will lead to the permanent shutdown of the two oldest reactors located there and that other shutdowns will follow quickly.

Shares in German renewable energy stocks surged yesterday. Realistically, in addition to renewables, that means a greater reliance on coal and gas.