Andrew Eaton-Lewis: Oscars will be as predictable as the Brits

ACCORDING to most pundits, the winner of the Best Picture Oscar tonight will either be a nostalgic film about the early days of cinema, or a nostalgic film about the early days of cinema. But will it be The Artist or Hugo?

If it’s not The Artist, it’ll feel like a curious, last-minute snub, given how much the film has dominated the rest of this year’s awards. I’d quite like it to win, despite agreeing with those critics who think it’s overrated.

Yes, its plot is yet another example of a clichéd male fantasy that seems to obsess Hollywood – a powerful man falls from grace but finds a kind of redemption with the help of a beautiful younger woman (see The Wrestler, Crazy Heart etc). It’s also another Hollywood film about Hollywood that tuts about celebrities’ shallowness while sneakily endorsing it.

I don’t particularly mind any of this, because The Artist does what it does with such a light touch. It’s like a classic, unashamed pop song – instantly, comfortingly familiar, with a slight twist that marks it out from all the similar songs you’ve heard before, but not a big enough twist to make it unpalatable.

Then again, I don’t take the Oscars any more seriously than I take the Brits, another slickly put together awards ceremony that rewards a very specific kind of success. The Brits were especially predictable this year (Best British Female: Adele. Best International Breakthrough Act: Lana Del Rey. Etc), and perhaps that’s for the best. That way no one will mistake them for something they’re not – a reward for artistry, perhaps, as opposed to a celebration of commerce – and end up baffled and frustrated that their favourite obscure indie band was overlooked.

The Oscars’ purpose is slightly more complicated. The lack of Hollywood blockbusters on show is supposed to make us think they’re about artistry, but they’re not really. They’re just a different marketing tool, a way to sell the kind of films that can’t be sold using burger chain tie-ins or eye-popping special effects, because their target audience consists of people who think of themselves as sophisticated film-goers. The Oscars sell films the way Häagen-Dazs sells ice cream, or M&S sells ready meals. The point, is not the quality of the food but how it makes us feel about ourselves.

I’m not saying all Oscar-nominated films are artistically worthless. Of course not, that would be idiotic. There’s lots of art on those nomination lists, always has been. But if The Artist wins tonight, all it will mean is that it sold itself better than the others.