Analysis: Scots are on the move, following jobs from west to east

THERE is no need to worry when the last Scotsman will be born. Scotland is experiencing a gentle healthy growth in its population, as revealed by Scotland's mid-year population estimates.

Only a few years ago there was considerable angst about Scotland becoming a shrinking nation, with population experts raising concerns about the prospect of a downward shift in population numbers, perhaps even below the five million mark. This is now far from the case. Indeed, the past few years have shown a remarkable demographic turnaround. The change is largely accounted for by immigration, but natural increase has also played its part. More important than the short-run contrasts between the 2010 and the 2009 figures for Scotland's population, are the long-term trends confirmed yesterday. Between the 1950s and 1980s, Scotland lost more people than it gained through migration. However, this trend has now reversed, and yesterday's figures show that the country has an established longer-run growth trend, with net annual gains from migration of more than 20,000 now recorded since 2003.

In recent years the negative rates of natural increase (births minus deaths), which Scotland experienced about the turn of the millennium, have also shown a long-term turnaround, with more people being born than dying every year for the past five years. These encouraging year-on-year trends provide reason to be optimistic regarding long-term prospects for population growth.

Some will argue over whether population growth is desirable. More important than the overall numbers is how the trends revealed in these figures impact on the composition of the Scotland's population and on its economy.

The gentle upward trend in births over the past few years means falling primary school rolls should be of less concern than in the past. At the other end of the age spectrum, people are living longer - good news for all, but undoubtedly this welcome trend is a very pressing policy issue for the health service as it seeks to cater for Scotland's ageing population.

These effects will be felt most acutely in rural areas, which have the highest proportion of pensioners - for example, in Argyll and Bute it is 20 per cent of the male population and 32 per cent of the female.

Arguably the most fascinating aspect of the report is the way in which the population is shifting east. Between 2000 and 2010, the five council areas with a population growth over 8 per cent were East and West Lothian, Edinburgh, Perth and Kinross and Aberdeenshire. By contrast, population losses over the same period were in the west, with Inverclyde and East and West Dumbartonshire all declining by 3 per cent or more.The shifts do not justify concern about a new era of redistribution on the scale of the Clearances or the massive flow of people during the 19th century from the Highlands to the cities of the Central Belt, but there is little doubt that these figures attest to the rebalancing of the Scottish economy and the consequent long-term eastward trend. This will continue to put pressure on local authorities in terms of the need for services in Scotland's growth regions. This will not necessarily be easy in an era of financial retrenchment.

• Allan Findlay and David McCollum are from Dundee University's geography department.