Analysis: Credible elections vital if Nigeria is to be a leader in West Africa

From lobbying for intervention in crisis-torn Ivory Coast to strong backing for western-led air strikes in Libya, Nigeria has been busy burnishing its credentials on the diplomatic stage.

The African giant, home to more than 140 million, won an unprecedented third term as chairman of West African bloc Ecowas last week and sees itself as a prime contender for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council.

But its credibility as a regional leader at a critical time, with Ivory Coast plunging back into war and the international community striving for a common voice on North Africa, hinges on elections which begin tomorrow. . Polls as flawed as the last ones in 2007 - marred by ballot stuffing and intimidation - could easily erode the goodwill that president Goodluck Jonathan has built up since inheriting power last year after the death of Umaru Yar'Adua.

US ambassador Terence McCulley said: "The quality of these elections will certainly be important as to how the US and other nations view Nigeria, and how effectively Nigeria can exercise leadership internationally."

Nigeria enjoyed strong relations with the West under former president Olusegun Obasanjo. But his attempt to secure a third term, and his role in organising the chaotic 2007 elections which brought Mr Yar'Adua to power, soured his reputation, and the latter did little to rebuild bridges.

"Nigeria has demonstrated increased willingness to assert itself in a constructive manner in the sub-region, on the African continent and beyond," Mr McCulley said.

However, Ivory Coast's unrest was triggered by disputed elections and Nigeria would be in a weak position to police the region if next month's polls are less than credible.