Analysis: Change in foreign policy likely after Lula steps down

Brazil is likely to tone down its brash foreign policy of recent years after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva steps down, raising the prospect of a thaw in relations with the United States but keeping progress on trade deals slow.

The charismatic former union leader, who US President Barack Obama called "my man" before relations soured over Iran's nuclear program, has boosted Brazil's diplomatic profile on global issues from environment to trade.

If opinion polls ahead of 3 October elections are right, he will be succeeded by his chosen candidate Dilma Rousseff, who shares many of his views on Brazil's role in the world but who is expected to focus much more on domestic policy.

"We'll lose the main spokesman of our foreign policy. Some years ago the best-known personality in Brazil was Pele, today it's Lula," Marco Aurelio Garcia, Lula's foreign policy advisor, said.

Under Mr Lula, Brazil has established itself as a force for Latin American integration, a leader of the developing world on trade and the environment, and has forged stronger joint positions with fellow emerging giants Russia, China and India.

Mr Lula mediated standoffs between Colombia and Venezuela, spearheaded peace-keeping efforts in Haiti, and took a central role in Honduras' political crisis last year.

Bolstered by the global financial crisis that brought traditional economic powers to their knees, Lula has been increasingly ready to criticise and stand up to the United States and Europe.

His mediation efforts over Iran's nuclear program, which included two meetings with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Brazil's rejection of UN sanctions against Tehran, were slammed by human rights watchdogs and angered Washington.

"I don't see her (Rousseff] taking such controversial paths - she doesn't have Lula's unique biography nor high profile," says Jose Botafogo Goncalves, head of the Rio de Janeiro-based foreign policy think-tank, Cebri. "I think it will be better for Brazil. The Iran episode was a failure. We were totally isolated in the United Nations Security Council," Botafogo said.

A career civil servant, Ms Rousseff pledges overall continuity but has given few policy details on international affairs. "We will continue President Lula's foreign policy, which combines a diversification of our partners while (maintaining] our traditional partners - one doesn't exclude the other," Ms Rousseff said.

She seems sure to continue Brazil's much-criticised policy of playing down threats to democracy and human rights in countries such as Venezuela, Cuba and Iran. But there may be a marked difference in style from Lula's high-profile presidential diplomacy as she focuses on domestic areas closer to her expertise and experience.

"The domestic agenda will dominate.At least in the first year, her focus will be on economic and social issues," said Rubens Barbosa, former Brazilian ambassador to Washington.

Ms Rousseff's choice of foreign minister will be crucial in determining the level of continuity. The experienced and energetic foreign minister Celso Amorim would help offset some of her international inexperience if he were to keep his job. Her main election rival, Jose Serra, is offering a sharply different path on foreign policy, but is trailing badly in polls.

He has criticised Mr Lula's Iran policy, would likely cool relations with regional leftists such as Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, and possibly would embark on bilateral trade negotiations without the South American trade block Mercosur.

Ms Rousseff is expected to maintain Mr Lula's slow-track trade policy, which sought a common front of developing countries in global trade talks but made little progress in opening markets with substantial bilateral trade deals.

A proponent of big government and strong state companies in key sectors of the economy, she is unlikely to open Brazil's booming economy to more foreign participation.

"You may see more credit and tax breaks for exporters but I don't see her pushing for ambitious trade deals," said Andre Nassar, head of the Sao Paulo-based trade think-tank Icone.

If we see more trade deals, they'll be like those under Lula - more political in nature than commercial," said Nassar.

• Raymond Colitt is a correspondent for the Reuters news agency