Kirsty McLuckie: Property buyers left in a spin

Last year, more than 35,000 people in Scotland bought a first home, spending a collective £5 billion. They had to face a hotly competitive market, but compared to this year’s crop of first-time buyers, it must have been a relatively stress-free decision.

The gamble of making big decisions in a year when the facts keep changing is the problem. Every headline seems to directly impact our finances, like a shower of fiscal humdingers hitting us at every turn.

But with property, timing is everything, and for those considering whether or not this is the right time to buy, the decision is impacted by considerations of interest rates, house prices and taxation.

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As you may have noticed, interest rates are currently at their highest since 2008, so locking in to a fixed rate now will either be a millstone around your neck if rates reverse, or will be a timely financial decision if they continue to rise.

Image: Adobe Stock/iQonceptImage: Adobe Stock/iQoncept
Image: Adobe Stock/iQoncept

Hikes are certainly likely in the short term. The Bank of England last week indicated rates will have to be raised higher than initially hoped because of inflation. The next rate decision is on 3 November and predictions point to a move from the current level of 2.25 per cent to 3 or possibly 3.25 per cent.

However, if you already have a mortgage agreement in principle, dating from when rates were lower, it may be wise to get on and use it. Figures from Rightmove released this week suggest buyers are rushing to complete property purchases before their lower mortgage offers expire.

House prices – so far – seem to be holding steady. Average prices rose about half a per cent in Scotland last month, and there is still demand from buyers and a lack of supply.

However, you have to consider that prices may be being artificially propped up by those still completing on lower rate mortgages, which would suggest coming house price falls, so buying now in haste could risk getting into negative equity.

If the housing market is due a correction in prices, it might be better to wait for the discount, but again from Rightmove: “The number of homes that were already on the market seeing a reduction in price is still well below the long-term average.”

So in other words, don’t hold your breath. And staying your hand to buy next year could mean paying even higher interest rates. In addition to rate rises and possible turbulence in prices, there may be changes in property tax to be considered.

The Scottish Government so far has not changed Land and Building Transaction Tax in line with the rise in Stamp Duty thresholds announced in England, but there is political pressure to do so.

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The response has been that Holyrood will consider any changes as part of the normal budgetary process – and the next budget is due to be published on 15 December. First-time buyers with a budget considerably more than the current tax-free threshold of £175,000 might fancy a gamble on a policy of wait and see, as such a move could save them a considerable amount.

But that feels like a long way off with a myriad of financial events possible in the meantime – at the moment, a week is a long time in property.

- Kirsty McLuckie is property editor at The Scotsman