Two Scottish children are struck down by swine flu

TWO Scottish children were yesterday confirmed as having swine flu as the number of probable cases in the country continued to increase.

Meanwhile, the entire third year of an Argyll school is to be kept at home after a pupil there emerged as a "probable" case of the virus.

The rising number of infections came as leading flu expert Professor John Oxford predicted that a flu pandemic is likely to strike the UK this autumn, with the virus gathering strength as it spreads.

One of the new cases confirmed yesterday is the 13-year-old son of a 37-year-old Glasgow man who remains critically ill in hospital with the H1N1 virus.

The other is a five-year-old child who was part of their "contact group" and attended Annette Street Primary in Glasgow which was closed last week.

The patient's wife and another child, 11, who attended Annette St Primary, have already tested positive for the virus.

There are also six new probable cases – meaning a positive test has been made for influenza A, but further results are needed to confirm H1N1 – under investigation in Highland.

One of these involves a 13-year-old girl who attended classes at Dunoon Grammar School last Friday while showing symptoms.

All third year pupils are being kept at home as a precaution and close contacts of the 13-year-old are being given antivirals.

But the school will remain open, officials have decided, after a risk assessment.

Health secretary Nicola Sturgeon said the risk to the general public from swine flu was low.

"Robust risk assessments have been undertaken with regard to the school involved and the decision has been taken that it will remain open," she said.

"We are continuing to take all possible steps to limit the spread of the virus and our efforts so far have proven to be successful."

There are now a total of 19 confirmed cases of swine flu in Scotland, with 12 probable cases and a further 23 possible cases.

Yesterday, a further 15 cases were confirmed south of the border – including the first infection to emerge in Wales.

Four cases have now been confirmed at Eton College. Parents of pupils at the Berkshire school, which was attended by Princes William and Harry, are to receive a letter stating there are now 32 suspected cases of swine flu at the school. The total number of cases in the UK is now just under 250.

Prof Oxford, an expert in virology at Queen Mary School of Medicine, University of London, said he was certain that a flu pandemic would emerge.

Children going back to school, universities re-opening and people returning to work after the summer break would give swine flu the "opportunity" it needs, he said.

"Unfortunately I don't think this is going to die down," he said. "At the moment it's moving fairly quietly in the community.

"But when children go back to school in September the virus has an opportunity, and normally it takes it.

"That's the scenario we should prepare for and that's what we are preparing for."