Recession hits Scots fertility rate

SCOTLAND’S fertility rate has gone into reverse with experts claiming that the economic downturn is forcing women to delay motherhood.

The fertility rate – the number of births per 1,000 women of child-bearing age – has dropped in the past two years after steadily increasing over the previous seven.

The rate of births has fallen most among younger women, who tend to be harder hit financially by difficult economic times than their older counterparts.

Economists believe the rates could fall even further in coming years as the country struggles to pull itself out of financial crisis and the cost of having a family forces couples to rethink their plans.

Figures from the General Register Office for Scotland (GROS) show that the fertility rate had been increasing each year since 2002, rising from 48.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 to 57.2 in 2008. But following falling confidence in the economy, the rate dropped to 56.5 last year.

The biggest drops were seen in women under 30. Among those aged 20 to 24, the rate of births fell from 65.3 in 2008 to 60.1 in 2010. Among those aged 25 to 29, the rate dropped from 98.1 to 93.6 during the same period.

But in those over the age of 30 – the group least willing to delay motherhood due to the risks that they may not be able to conceive if they wait longer – there were small increases in fertility rates since 2008.

Robert Wright, professor of economics at Strathclyde Business School, said the economy played a key role in fertility rates, along with factors such as employment and increasing levels of education.

“When times are good, fertility rates go up and when times are bad they go down. This also has different impacts on different age groups,” he said.

“One outcome that you get is that people are postponing. In some cases, if these women are older, postponement means not having children at all or not having the children that they want.”

Wright questioned whether births would increase in Scotland in the near future.

“The fertility rate in Scotland is in long-term decline,” he said. We have seen this increase in fertility up until the last two years because the economy was basically good, people were confident and the jobs market was fairly robust,” he said.

“But when are we going to get back to normal? Some people think never. I think it is going to take a long time with the additional news saying that this [recession] is going to go on longer than anyone expected or wants.

“I would be very surprised if you saw any serious increase in fertility and it is more likely we will see a sizeable decrease still to come.”

Professor Lynn Jamieson, a sociologist from the Centre for Research on Families and Relationships at Edinburgh University, said the organisation’s own research, which questioned people in their 20s about the impact of the recession, found that having a stable job and income was key to the position in which they wanted to be when they started a family.

“It is about wanting a partner, and if you have a partner, wanting the savings and a decent place to live before you have children. The more difficult it gets to achieve each of these things, the more people are likely to delay,” she said.

Helen Lyall, a consultant gynaecologist and specialist in infertility and reproductive medicine at the Nuffield Hospital in Glasgow, said women now faced many difficult choices.

“People probably are thinking twice about starting a family just because of all the economic pressures. Often when you are in your 20s you don’t think there might be a problem having a baby. For some people there won’t be but for those where there will be a problem it is better if you know about that so at least you can make informed choices.”