Covid Scotland: How worried should we be about rising cases as Nicola Sturgeon prepares to update MSPs?

Nicola Sturgeon is set to confirm today whether the planned easing of Covid restrictions next week will go ahead.

This would see all legal restrictions, even the requirement to wear a face covering, lifted from Monday.

It will be an enormous milestone for a country where the Scottish Government has remained cautious, while England is now well into its second removal of all legal restrictions.

However, in a by now familiar habit, Covid has stepped in with a vengeance just at the wrong moment.

Nicola Sturgeon is set to announce on Tuesday whether the easing will go ahead or not.

Official case numbers are still relatively low, but experts believe this is a significant understatement of the true picture.

The Office for National Statistics weekly infection survey, considered by many to be the gold standard metric, instead estimates infection levels to be at a record high.

This is probably down to several factors, including the routine spike in cases following relaxation of rules and the dominance of the Omicron subvariant BA.2, which is possibly more transmissible, and potentially milder, meaning people may be more likely to spread the disease without realising they have it.

High case numbers aren’t so much of a concern themselves; their main challenge is the staffing shortages they cause. But self-isolation and testing rules have been relaxed since January, and we’re not seeing the same kind of drastic situation Omicron caused then.

The problem, and the reason Nicola Sturgeon might reconsider the easing of restrictions, is the health service.

The NHS has been under extraordinary strain for months, so news that staff are exhausted and overworked and targets are being missed is sadly no surprise to anyone.

But there have been a few recent red flags. NHS Lanarkshire has admitted all its hospitals are above maximum capacity; staff absences across Scotland have reached the highest level in both the NHS and social care since mid-January; and accident and emergency waiting times are now approaching the records for poor performances set at the start of the year.

The situation is currently troubling, and at odds with the messages of hope and “return to normal” given when the easing plan was announced.

But crisis in the NHS has become the status quo, and the current surge in Covid hospitalisations and pressure on health boards may be considered by decision-makers a price worth paying for “living with Covid”.

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