Scottish tourism chiefs say industry has hit 'ground zero' after slump in bookings

Scottish tourism leaders say the industry has hit “ground zero” within the last few days as bookings have almost completely dried up in the face of official advice to limit social contact and stay at home in the face of the coronavirus pandemic.
Scottish Tourism Alliance chief executive Marc Crothall has warned it may take the industry at least 18 months to stage a recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.Scottish Tourism Alliance chief executive Marc Crothall has warned it may take the industry at least 18 months to stage a recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.
Scottish Tourism Alliance chief executive Marc Crothall has warned it may take the industry at least 18 months to stage a recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

The Scottish Tourism Alliance (STA) says virtually all current hotel business has already been wiped out across the country, while government agency VisitScotland warned that the cost of cancellations had already been estimated at more than £20 million before the public pleas were made by the UK and Scottish governments on Monday.

The STA has warned that it may take the industry up to 18 months to recover from the impact of the dramatic slump, describing coronavirus as the most serious crisis in the history of the industry.VisitScotland has admitted the predicted impact on the industry is already likely to be “more severe” than the aftermath of the 9/11 terror attacks in the United States.

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STA chief executive Marc Crothall said: “Looking across the whole accommodation sector, there was a 30 per cent drop-off in business about 10-15 days ago, it very quickly went up to 50, 60 and 70 per cent a few days later and now there is virtually zero business.

“There was already a rapid acceleration of call-offs and when the Prime Minister advised people to stay at home there were cancellations on an unprecedented scale.

“It’s not just about the international market, it’s very much about the domestic market too. People seem to want to stay away, be safe and following the official guidelines from government. We’re basically at ground zero now. The big issue now is forward bookings, and how we ensure they continue to flow through, but there’s little or nothing coming in.

“Everybody is in the current situation of complete unknown, on what might be lockdown, how long the virus will take to move and when transport operators will revert to normality, if normality ever comes back at all.

“Some businesses are offering booking re-adjustments, which is great. We can only hope things progress in such a way that we can salvage some of the summer and beyond, but it will be a very slow return to anything of significance.

“My colleagues in Ireland have effectively written off the summer and there are economists saying it could be 12-18 months before there is a recovery. In real terms, I think it could be as long as that, if not longer.

“Our domestic market will hopefully be the one that supports the industry, but I would question how much disposable income people will have at their discretion to spend on leisure or hospitality.

“And even if a business such as a hotel is ready to go ahead will the supply chain be stable enough to support it. If a few links in the chain are broken it will not be possible.”

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Malcolm Roughead, VisitScotland’s chief executive, said: “As we all know, the tourism industry is a resilient one as we saw after foot and mouth and 9/11. But this is already looking to be more severe and we will be working closely with the industry once we move into recovery mode.”

Russell Imrie, spokesman for the Edinburgh Hotels Association, said: “Business has fallen off a cliff since 1 March and cancellations of rooms, meetings and weddings are coming in by the hour.

“Business through to at least the end of May is a write-off. Hotels will start to close this weekend without government support.”