Doctors question ability to cope with surge in demand amid warnings NHS will be hit by second wave of Covid-19

Doctors across the country have expressed serious concerns over their ability to manage demand in the NHS as it begins restoring non Covid-19 related services, with the British Medical Association warning that the system could be overwhelmed by a second wave of the virus.
Dr Lewis Morrison warned the NHS would struggle to cope with a second wave of Covid-19 while resuming services. Picture: Ian RutherfordDr Lewis Morrison warned the NHS would struggle to cope with a second wave of Covid-19 while resuming services. Picture: Ian Rutherford
Dr Lewis Morrison warned the NHS would struggle to cope with a second wave of Covid-19 while resuming services. Picture: Ian Rutherford

A survey of more than 900 doctors across Scotland found that an overwhelming majority (63 per cent) were not confident about coping with patient demand in the community, with more than half (52 per cent) sharing the same concerns about the preparedness of their own practice.

Lewis Morrison, the chair of BMA Scotland, stressed the need for a cautious and carefully planned approach to resuming NHS services, describing it as a challenge of “huge scale and complexity.”

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With the NHS set to restart some services that have been suspended, delayed or deferred due to the virus, the association’s tracker survey found that a sizeable minority of doctors - some 43 per cent of respondents - were not confident about being able to manage patient demand if there is a second peak of Covid-19.

Amid fears that those who are flouting the newly eased lockdown restrictions could jeopardise public health efforts to date, Dr Morrison warned the NHS could suffer the consequences

He said: “Many doctors are concerned about how they will cope with surges in demand as the NHS begins to open up, and a second wave of coronavirus remains a real possibility.

“We already know the NHS cannot cope with both a high level of coronavirus as well as everything else.

“There are a huge range of issues to consider – from social distancing in NHS settings, to the need to give doctors and staff a chance to recuperate from the rigours of dealing with the pandemic, when many have gone well above and beyond what has been asked of them.

“We also need guaranteed ongoing supplies of PPE and robust testing and isolation of patients before procedures such as operations.”

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The survey of 910 doctors found that nearly one in five (19.4 per cent) were “not at all confident” of managing demand in their own practice as NHS services resume, with one in three (33.3 per cent) “not very confident.”

That brittle confidence plummeted further when questioned about community settings, such as care homes, with 19.9 per cent not at all confident, and 43.7 per cent not very confident.

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Asked about their preparedness to deal with patient demand if a second spike of Covid-19 emerges, some 17.4 per cent of doctors said they were not at all confident, with over a quarter (26.2 per cent) not very confident.

Only 39 per cent said they were slightly confident at being able to cope, with 13 per cent declaring themselves very confident.

Dr Morrison, a consultant geriatrician, said it was “vital” to get as much of the NHS “back up and running” as quickly as is safely possible, but emphasised the importance of striking a balance between seeing patients and the need to minimise further Covid-19 infection.

There was a risk, he added, of “pushing already tired and stretched staff and services beyond what they are capable of.”

BMA Scotland has outlined “five key asks” of the Scottish Government to ensure services can be resumed safely.

They include ensuring ongoing adequate PPE for health and care workers, comprehensive measures to safeguard staff wellbeing, and effective and transparent public communication so that patients “understand what they can and cannot expect from the NHS at this time.”

Dr Morrison continued: “We also need politicians across the board to work in a constructive manner with each other and ensure there is consistent and realistic messaging to the public about what is possible in the short, medium and long term.

“The understandable desire to use the lessons learned from Covid-19 to evolve and redesign NHS services needs to be tempered with a realisation of what is going to be deliverable.”

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