'It's an absolute emergency' - Red meat shortage warnings as farmer confidence down while demand soars

Red meat shortage warnings as farmer confidence down while demand soars

Red meat could be in short supply on the shelves as early as this year if minsters fail to improve farmer confidence, industry leaders have warned.

The Scottish Association of Meat Wholesalers (SAMW) said beef supplies are reaching a critical point as cattle herds continue to shrink across the country.

According official figures, there has been a 12 per cent decline in the total beef breeding herd in the last ten years. SAMW projects a further 6 per cent decline in the coming years.

Beef herds have been shrinking for years, impacting supply | Katharine Hay

Farmers have said increasing difficulty to find labour has been one reason behind the decline.

Scott Walker, of SAMW, said dwindling farmer confidence due to uncertainty over farming policy has also been a big factor.

“Over the years, the Scottish Government has gradually discouraged livestock production as they see it as a problem for the environment,” he said.

“They have led this view that the cow is bad for the environment.

“What they don’t understand is we produce some of the more environmentally friendly beef in the world here in Scotland.

“It’s also something the public want. Domestic demand is increasing, but as is international demand, but supply is shrinking. It’s an absolute emergency.”

Industry leaders said the decline in cattle numbers has reached a stage where it “is likely to be felt on retail shelves at certain points in 2025”.

Mr Walker said the latest changes to inheritance tax for farmers was another blow to industry confidence, which will, in turn, impact supply.

He added: “The government has known about these problems for years, and if the industry doesn’t have confidence that things are going to change, there’s going to be less and less investment, the closure of even more abattoirs, and less supply.”

According to Quality Meat Scotland, between 2008-18, Scotland suffered a total of 10 abattoir closures. Industry leaders said this presents welfare concerns for animals and instability for Scotland's meat producers, particularly those located within the more remote areas.

SAMW said suggestions that imported product can easily fill any gaps that arise are misguided given global red meat supplies are under pressure.

Lisa Hislop, livestock policy manager at the National Farmers Union Scotland, said the recent budget changes, on top of other factors, will impact those in or looking to work in the beef industry.

“While the decline cannot be attributed to just one factor, the recent budget announcement is a huge blow for the beef sector which has lacked confidence for many years due to the wider cumulative impact of economic, policy and environmental factors which all affect the decision-making process of farmers and crofters choosing to pursue a beef enterprise.

“It is critical that policy makers bear in mind the timescales of beef production. Today’s policy decisions will take years to understand their true impact on farming and crofting.”

Agriculture minister Jim Fairlie said: “The Scottish Government support package for livestock farmers is the most tailored in the UK, including voluntary coupled support for beef production and support for Less Favoured areas through the LFASS scheme providing specific additional direct support to our red meat sector. We will continue to work in partnership with the livestock sector to consider how we meet the challenges of declining livestock numbers.

“We also provided the industry with £500,000 additional financial support to help with cost increases. This is in stark contrast to the UK Government – currently fast tracking the end of direct support to livestock farmers in England.”

A UK Government spokesman said: “Our commitment to farmers remains steadfast – we have committed £5 billion to the farming budget over two years, including more money than ever for sustainable food production, and we are developing a 25-year farming roadmap, focusing on how to make the sector more profitable in the decades to come.

“Our reform to Agricultural and Business Property Relief will impact around 500 estates a year. For these estates, inheritance tax will be at half the rate paid by others, with 10 years to pay the liability back interest free. This is a fair and balanced approach which fixes the public services we all rely on."