'Very worrying' research finds just 40% of S4 pupils pass maths exam in Scottish schools

New research suggests Scotland has a “mountain to climb” to improve the performance of school pupils in key subjects, with just 40 per cent of S4 students passing mathematics at National 5 level.

The report by the Commission on School Reform, a group of education experts set up by the Reform Scotland think tank, claims to show for the first time what the “real” pass rates are at National 5.

The findings have been branded “very worrying” by former First Minister Lord McConnell, who is chairman of Reform Scotland, and a former maths teacher.

Labour politician Jack McConnell was the First Minister of Scotland from 2001 to 2007. | Getty Images

In the 2024 exams, official figures show the overall pass rate at National 5 was 77.3 per cent, with the proportion gaining A to C grades in maths being 68.2 per cent.

However, these figures only show the pass rates of the pupils who sat the exams - with many pupils choosing not to take the subject, or not being entered for the exam.

In its new report, entitled Broken Stem, the Commission on School Reform has looked at the exam data based on the number of pupils in the cohort at S4.

It found just 40.1 per cent of S4 pupils were passing National 5 mathematics, while the figure for Biology was 25.9 per cent, it was 22.5 per cent for chemistry, 17.9 per cent in physics and 9.8 per cent in computing science.

The research shows slight drops in the proportion of S4 pupils gaining a pass at National 5 in computing, physics, chemistry and biology over the past decade, although the rate has remained fairly steady in maths.

In English, however, the proportion of S4 pupils passing the subject at National 5 has increased significantly in the same period, from 65.3 per cent to 75.2 per cent.

The applications of mathematics course was also introduced in Scottish schools in 2017, with the number of entrants and proportion of passes increasing almost every year since then. The proportion of S4 pupils passing the subject this year was 21.6 per cent.

The Scottish Government has pointed out that the research focuses on the performance of S4 pupils, despite students from other year groups also being able to sit National 5 exams.

The data in the report shows roughly half of S5 pupils sitting STEM subjects at National 5 pass them.

The research was carried out after concerns were raised about Scotland’s recent performances in the OECD’s Pisa tests, which are taken by a sample of 15-year-olds.

Last year, the results showed the scores of Scotland’s youngsters had dropped by 18 points in maths, 11 points in reading and seven points in science since the last Pisa assessments in 2018.

Lord McConnell, who served as First Minister from 2001 to 2007, said: “It is very worrying that less than half of Scotland's 16 year olds have this essential Maths qualification.

“If our economic future is to be based around industries like renewable energy and health sciences, improving our pass rates in mathematics and the sciences is a matter of critical national importance. The deficit in our STEM pass rates revealed by this research is not good enough.”

Carole Ford, former head teacher of Kilmarnock Academy and a member of the Commission on School Reform, said: “This is some of the most important, if worrying, data that we have produced in recent years, and it offers a ‘real world’ perspective of how our pupils are doing.

“We knew from the 2023 PISA results - which showed a persistent decline - that our outcomes in maths and science were very poor, but this data lays bare that we have a mountain to climb.”

A Scottish Government spokesperson said: “If the position was as the Commission suggests, we would share their concern. However, not all pupils take their Nat 5s in S4.

“The pass rate for National 5 maths this year was in fact 68.2 per cent for pupils who sat the exam, an increase of 5.7 percentage points on the previous year.

“When pupils undertake their national qualifications is decided by pupils, parents and teachers at individual school level. They are best-placed to determine the correct pathway for each young person and this flexibility and child-centred approach has been a key feature of Curriculum for Excellence for many years.

“One of the most important aspects of such decisions is that young people are entered at the level of qualification at which they have the best chance of achieving success.”