Exclusive:SNP ministers alarmed at 'concerning' rise in number of pupils quitting school in S4

Pilot scheme could be launched to make it easier for teenagers to return to school if they ‘change their minds’

SNP ministers have privately raised concerns about the growing proportion of pupils quitting school in S4, it can be revealed.

Education Secretary Jenny Gilruth highlighted the issue during high-level talks with several senior figures in the sector.

Education Secretary Jenny Gilruth | PA

She even questioned the extent to which school careers advisers have been influencing the trend, with officials ordered to gather further data on the impact of such support services on the decision making of teenagers.

Minutes of a ministerial meeting show the Scottish Government is also considering launching a pilot project to make it easier for ex-pupils to return to school if they “change their minds” about leaving.

In Scotland, S4 is mainly made up of 15 and 16-year-olds, and it tends to be the last compulsory year of school, although the majority still opt to continue through S5, comprised of 16 and 17-year-olds, and S6, which is 17 and 18-year-olds.

For the past two years, a total of 14.4 per cent of school leavers left in S4, which is the highest level since 2010/11. By comparison, the rate was 11.4 per cent before the pandemic in 2019/20.

The proportion leaving in S5 has also generally been rising, reaching 28.4 per cent last year, which was the second highest level on record since 2009/10, only just below the 28.5 per cent in 2022/23.

Meanwhile, the proportion leaving in S6 has fallen to its lowest level since 2009/10, at 57.1 per cent in the past two years.

Nine Ashfield schools were either at, or beyond, capacity for pupil numbers last year. Photo: Getty Images | Getty

Newly-released minutes from a meeting of the Education and Skills Reform Ministerial Group in November show how the trend is causing alarm.

Ms Gilruth, who chaired the meeting, raised the role of school careers advisors. The minute said: “The chair expressed concern about the increasing numbers of S4 leavers and commented on the statistic that 28 per cent of S4 leavers (from a survey conducted by Skills Development Scotland) suggested that careers advisers were a factor in affecting their decision to leave school.”

Other attendees, including Further and Higher Education Minister Graeme Dey, expressed a desire for more detail on the data showing the advice of career support staff was impacting on the decisions of S4 leavers.

However, the Skills Development Scotland (SDS) agency, which runs the careers advice service and which carried out the survey referenced by Ms Gilruth, said it “was not involved in the meeting and does not recognise the interpretation of the data included in the minute”.

An SDS spokesperson said the Scottish Government asked it to carry out “additional analysis” of the 2023 Pupil Voice survey, focused on S4 leavers.

The analysis showed the primary influences on S4 leavers, in terms of their post-school plans, were their interests or hobbies, followed by their parents and carers. Key influences were then “the need to earn money”, followed by available job opportunities, and then came careers advisers and, lastly, guidance teachers.

“Any young person choosing to leave school in S4 is offered direct one-to-one support from a careers adviser to support their post-school transition,” a SDS spokesperson said. “SDS careers advice is non-directive and impartial, but rather seeks to empower young people to make the right decisions for them.”

During the discussion on S4 leavers at the November meeting of the Education and Skills Reform Ministerial Group, members also considered whether pupils lack a “sense of belonging” in Scottish schools, as well as the impact of the pandemic.

Alison Murison, head teacher at Aberdeen Grammar School, told the group that “a major issue in schools is the training and recruitment of technology-related subject teachers, which is restricting the breadth of the curricular offer for some young people”.

It was suggested there should be a “pathway for learners who have left education early, but change their minds”, making it easier for them to “re-enter education”.

Ms Gilruth said she would be “open to considering relevant pilot work in this area”.

Andrea Bradley, general secretary of the Educational Institute of Scotland (EIS), the nation’s largest teaching union, was also at the meeting.

She told The Scotsman: “The recent and quite marked decrease in the numbers of young people staying on at school beyond the end of S4 is concerning, and raises further questions about how solidly inclusive the senior phase of education is, and to what extent it is appropriate for all young people, particularly for those from the most socio-economically disadvantaged backgrounds and those who have additional support needs.

“For young people to feel that they truly belong at school, the approaches to learning, teaching, curriculum, assessment and qualifications must include them fully.”

Ms Bradley highlighted the Scottish Government’s failure to accept many of the recommendations of a review led by Professor Louise Hayward, which suggested scrapping exams for S4 pupils and creating a new Scottish Diploma of Achievement.

“The EIS believes that the continuation of a model of senior phase education that has its origins in the 19th century, which favours more affluent students, and which sets Scotland as an outlier internationally, is likely to be an influential factor in leaving rates,” she said.

“Sadly, the Scottish Government so far has chosen not to progress the recommendations of the Independent Review of Qualifications and Assessment, led by Professor Louise Hayward, which captured an alternative, more inclusive vision of the senior phase in Scotland and outlined the steps towards it.

“Consequently, young people continue to suffer the three-year treadmill of sitting qualifications and exams, amidst large class sizes, rather than the deeper, more meaningful, enjoyable and relational learning that Curriculum for Excellence should feature at all stages.

“As a result of this, and, the EIS would suggest, coupled with lack of support for all of the 40 per cent of young people who have recognised additional support needs, many of which are the result of poverty, more young people are voting with their feet and leaving school, and leaving education, sooner than is in their best interests, and sooner than is in the interests of our society whose cohesion, democracy and prosperity is dependent on its citizens being well educated.”

A Scottish Government spokesperson said: “The percentage of leavers in a positive destination three months after leaving school is at 95.7 per cent - the second highest since records began.

“The most recent statistics also show the proportion of school leavers choosing to leave at S4 was similar to last year’s figures. After a rise last year, we have been exploring why young people are deciding to leave school at S4. These factors include the pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis.

“We will continue to work closely with schools and partners to find ways to support young people stay in learning. This includes our £1 billion investment in the Scottish Attainment Challenge.”