Edinburgh schools face catchment changes, temporary classrooms as pupil roll soars by 31% in a decade

Two-thirds of high schools in the area have raised ‘suitability’ concerns about their buildings

Catchment changes and temporary classrooms are being considered for Edinburgh secondary schools after pupil numbers surged by 31 per cent within a decade.

A new city council report has revealed that a third of the city’s 23 high schools are now at capacity or on the brink, with forecasts predicting half of secondaries will be full within four years.

Local education chiefs highlighted a “significant turnaround” in the number of secondary pupils, after it reached a 22-year low in 2016. Since then, the number has rocketed by 31 per cent from 18,145 pupils in 2016 to 23,828 by September last year, including by almost 3 per cent in the past year.

Rolls are now at their highest level since the 1980s and are expected to continue to grow until a peak in 2030 or earlier, and then fall.

Boroughmuir High School, which is regularly named as the city’s best performing secondary in terms of exam results, is among the secondaries being monitored by the council. It is projected to exceed its new planning capacity next year, before beginning to drop after 2031.

Officials said: “The latest projections do suggest that the higher rolls being experienced are temporary, which may suggest that catchment change would not be effective. However, there is no scope to extend Boroughmuir High School further, so the intakes and roll at Boroughmuir High School will be closely monitored.

“If the recently completed extension proves, in the long term, to be insufficient, then proposals for catchment change will be brought forward at the appropriate time.”

At both Holy Rood RC High School and St Augustine’s RC High School, Roman Catholic pupils could be prioritised in future, potentially resulting in “additional pressure” in nearby non-denominational schools.

James Gillespie's High School will hit capacity this year, although it could drop again after 2028.

“To allow demand to be met, work is underway to repurpose some spaces in the school and make use of space in the annexe building at James Gillespie’s Primary School where the rolls are falling,” the report said.

Meanwhile, temporary accommodation “may be required” at Queensferry High School, until a longer-term solution is delivered.

Despite the figures, council officials have continued to say the Labour government’s decision at Westminster to add VAT to private school fees is not having a significant impact, with 63 youngsters making the switch to state schools in Edinburgh since last summer.

In contrast to secondaries, the city-wide primary school roll in Edinburgh is already falling, having dropped last year below 30,000 for the first time in almost a decade.

The trends are strongly linked to local birth rates, but are also influenced by the pace of new housing developments, and any changes relating to parental choice, stay-on rates, and the denominational and non-denominational split.

Of the 23 secondaries in Edinburgh, five are already over their “capacity”, with that number due to rise to eight by next year, and to 11 by 2029.

New “capacity” figures have recently been proposed by Edinburgh City Council, and plans are already being drawn up to extend buildings or utilise additional space, including for Castlebrae Community Campus, Craigmount High, Craigroyston High, Gracemount High, Liberton High and Trinity Academy.

Extensions are planned for both Craigmount and Castlebrae, although Craigmount’s roll is predicted to rise above its proposed new capacity, from 1,364 this year to 2,063 by 2033.

Officials said in a report to the council’s education committee: “This planned expansion would increase Craigmount’s capacity to 1,800 pupils. The long-term position will be monitored. Should further action be required as projections suggest, this will be captured as part of the consultation arising from delivery of a new West Edinburgh High School.”

Craigmount High School | Google Maps

During discussions on new planning capacities between schools and council officers, the state of buildings were discussed. A report said: “Of the 23 secondary schools in the estate, 15 raised some form of suitability issue.”

Three said they were running classes of 30 pupils in practical spaces equipped for 20, and five schools “expressed suitability concerns regarding the balance of general and practical teaching spaces currently available to them”.

A total of 14 schools expressed suitability concerns regarding the amount of dining and social space available to students.

The city council recently confirmed plans to replace or extend 11 schools as part of its capital plan, although the majority of the projects were in the primary sector, apart from extensions at Castlebrae and Craigmount.

A new Currie Community High is due to open this year, with a new Liberton High to follow next year.

The school roll figures are due to be discussed at a meeting of the council’s education committee next week. Councillors will also consider a new recommendation from officials to rule out the option of building a new non-denominational secondary school in Kirkliston, and instead agree to the development of proposals for the permanent extension of Queensferry High School.

Councillor Joan Griffiths, the council’s education convener, said: “This new report highlights our readiness to educate and cater for Edinburgh’s children and young people in our schools.

“Our work to monitor and assess capacity in our schools isn’t new, with continual analysis and projection work underway to explore future schooling requirements and to ensure we are ready to respond to the impact of any planned new developments in the city.

“Significant work has been undertaken with Head Teachers to measure and look at where and how it is suitable to accommodate additional pupils and adjustments that can be made to do this. We will always prioritise the best interests of learners.”