Analysis: Can John Swinney save his political career?

When he stands up in Holyrood at ten minutes to three tomorrow, John Swinney will know his continuing career as a Scottish Government minister will be decided by the plan he holds in his hands; a plan to resolve the downgrading of young people’s exam results in what has been described in no uncertain terms as a “shambles”, a “fiasco” and a “scandal”.

Education Secretary John Swinney has his political future in his own hands when he announced his "fix" for the exams fiasco tomorrow.

The Education Secretary is expected to reveal how the tens of thousands of exam grades which were reduced – many from passes to fails – by the moderation of the Scottish Qualifications Authority will be reinstated, without schools and pupils going through a laborious appeals process.

He will spell out why just seven days ago he, and the First Minister, believed those adjustments were fair; that by solely using teacher estimates the resulting hike in passes – particularly of the most disadvantaged pupils – was not “credible” but yet have now changed their minds.

He will make much, no doubt, of the unprecedented situation Scotland's education system has found itself in as a result of coronavirus – which closed schools and cancelled exams in the first place. He will also, as the First Minister said today, be clear that the moderation system employed by the SQA was done with “the best of intentions”, and hope that will draw a line, and allow people to move on.

That could be wishful thinking. No matter what he says Mr Swinney will face a motion of no confidence – laid by the Scottish Labour party and backed by the Scottish Conservatives, with the Scottish Liberal Democrats in place to support it if they don’t like what they hear tomorrow. And despite receiving the public backing of his friend and boss, Nicola Sturgeon, she has been clear that fault for the exams furore of the last week lies wholly at the government’s door. That is to say, his door.

However, you don't develop a reputation as a “safe pair of hands” in government for no reason and Mr Swinney, in his previous role as finance secretary, has skilfully seen nine budgets passed thanks to a combination of straight talking and canny negotiation, so he may well pull a rabbit from the hat tomorrow. Indeed it was those very qualities that saw Ms Sturgeon move him to the education brief four years ago, after she staked her own political reputation on closing the attainment gap between the wealthiest and poorest of Scotland’s pupils.

Which is perhaps the most puzzling thing about the last week. The Scottish Government has made closing the attainment gap its major focus, and yet when it came to the crunch, it allowed an exams award system to further ingrain that gap – disadvantaging further the most disadvantaged kids. It was a strange move, made all the stranger by hearing the First Minister and her Education Secretary deny that there was any evidence that the poorest pupils have been hit hardest by the moderation system.

Whatever Mr Swinney says tomorrow he will have to show some humility in the face of the condemnation he will likely receive from opposition MSPs – especially those who had been pointing out for months that his moderation plan was problematic. But MSPs of all political colours will have had their email inboxes overflowing with the anger and confusion of constituents, be they parents or pupils, and will all be seeking answers.

To the government’s credit, it is accepting responsibility for the shambles, rather than attempting to place the blame on the SQA. Whether that will be enough to save Mr Swinney is another matter. Motions of no confidence are rare, and usually only laid when opposition MSPs smell blood. John Swinney has definitely been wounded but it could take some days yet to discover if it’s a career-ending injury.

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Joy Yates

Editorial Director