Milk production looks set to fall

GB milk production could fall more than half a billion litres over the 2022/23 season according to new analysis by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB).

With uncertainty about prices and availability of key inputs through the year and the impact on cash flows, the organisation looked at milk production outcomes.

Five alternative scenarios studied showed that production could fall between 0.8 per cent and 5.3 per cent - or 650 million litres - depending on how changes impacted decisions on farm.

Patty Clayton, AHDB lead dairy analyst said: “Access to key agricultural inputs and feed ingredients have been severely affected by the war in Ukraine, which is forcing decisions to limit production.”

In March, AHDB published a baseline forecast based on discussions from the Milk Forecasting Forum, which set production for 2022/23 at 12,250 million litres, an 0.8 per cent fall on the previous season.

Clayton said the forecast had been updated to reflect a range of scenarios from mild to very high impact based on changes to feed, cull cow and farmgate prices as well as retention rates.

“The current uncertainty makes forecasting milk production for the upcoming season an even trickier task than normal, but we know it’s going to be a tough year for farmers,” said Clayton.

“Reviewing input costs, feed strategies and making the most of home-grown forage can all help. Farmers could also use the cost benefit calculator on our website to understand whether it makes sense to apply fertiliser to grassland,” she said.