The Week Ahead: John Lewis expected to score well from World Cup

A number of major retailers will fall under the spotlight this week, while the latest official inflation figures are set to provide the key economic highlight.

Expectations are high for Thursday's half-year results from retail bellwether John Lewis Partnership after a buoyant six months.

The World Cup provided a boost for sales of flat-screen televisions and party foods in June and July, and the department stores has been benefiting from better homeware and fashion sales.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

The group's half-year figures are expected to show a marked recovery on a year earlier, when profits slumped 19.6 per cent to 86.3 million.

Nick Bubb at Arden Partners is pencilling in profits of around 125m for the six months to August.

Year-on-year sales comparatives are likely to get much tougher for the group throughout the remainder of the second half.

Fashion and homewares chain Next reports half-year figures on Wednesday but attention is likely to be firmly focused on its outlook statement.

Last month, the group gave a warning that its prices may rise by as much as 8 per cent next year because of higher costs and January's VAT hike.

The interim results are expected to mask these underlying issues, and analysts at UBS have pencilled in 18 per cent growth in pre-exceptional profits, to 230m, with growth in both retail and its Directory business.

Debenhams management are likely to be questioned over the retailer's recent launch of a 25 per cent-off sale when they deliver a pre-close update tomorrow.

The four-day sale fuelled concerns about the consumer outlook, despite assurances that it had been planning the move for many months.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

In Debenhams' most recent update, it reported a like-for-like sales drop of 0.4 per cent over the 42 weeks to 19 June, compared with the 0.3 per cent increase seen in April.

One analyst estimated at the time that sales were down by about 2.5 per cent over the most recent 11-week trading period.

Debenhams, which has 146 department stores and 13 Desire outlets, has moved away from concessions and concentrated on its exclusive ranges such as its Designers at Debenhams lines, including clothing from John Rocha and Jasper Conran.

This has dented sales growth, but Investec Securities analysts said in July that they still expected the retailer to achieve pre-tax profits of 144m in the year to 31 August, up from 124.9m a year earlier.

The market will be hoping for further signs of resilient trading at homewares retailer Dunelm when it delivers full-year results on Thursday.

The group increased profits guidance in July after a better-than-expected finish to its financial year as it benefits from recent innovations.

Dunelm reported sales up 8 per cent in the year to 3 July, helped by changes to furniture and storage departments and the roll-out of arts and crafts products to more stores.Analysts at Numis Securities increased their profits target from 75m to 77m - which would mark a year-on-year rise of around 47 per cent.

They see a robust outlook for the group as its value offering appeals to hard-up consumers, describing it as "one of the few genuine growth stories in the sector".

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

Bank of England governor Mervyn King last month expressed surprised at the stubborn strength of inflation and warned it would be difficult to judge how far and fast it would fall.

So the pressure on King could mount tomorrow as economists at Barclays Capital have predicted a rise in the official consumer prices index (CPI) in August from 3.1 per cent to 3.2 per cent.

The increase would end three consecutive monthly falls, and keep inflation well above target. Others, however, forecast a slight fall in CPI to 3 per cent or even 2.9 per cent.

The cost of living has been held up by rising food prices, January's VAT hike, high oil prices and sterling's weakness pushing up import prices. The VAT hike to 20 per cent next year is expected to add upward pressure.