Scots business leading the way in confidence, investment and certainty

As Scotland looks beyond the recent parliamentary election, the focus is shifting quickly to the economic outlook - and how businesses are positioning for growth in a more uncertain geopolitical environment.

PA

At Holyrood First Minister John Swinney has appointed the new cabinet - setting priorities and building a team for the years ahead. And across the central belt at Barclays Hampden, Scotland Manager Steve Clarke has been doing something similar: naming his Scotland squad, balancing experience and emerging talent as he looks ahead to Scotland’s first World Cup match in just over two weeks’ time.

They’re very different moments, but there’s a shared thread. Both are about choices - about backing potential, bringing the right people together, and creating the conditions to perform. It feels like a similar moment for Scotland’s economy.

In the weeks since the election, the conversations I’ve been having with business leaders across the country have been strikingly consistent. There is resilience. There is ambition. There is confidence. But there’s also a clear sense that the next phase of growth will depend less on announcements, and more on delivery - on turning innovation into investment, and investment into real economic impact.

Yesterday we published Barclays’ Q1 2026 Business Prosperity Index. The research, which brings together anonymised data from over 900,000 SMEs and a quarter of UK corporates, alongside research insights from 1,000 business leaders, gives us a timely, evidence-based snapshot of that reality. Across the UK, firms are navigating geopolitical uncertainty and cost pressures, yet despite these challenges, the latest Barclays Business Prosperity Index suggests that Scottish businesses remain notably more optimistic in their business prospects than the UK average (85 per cent vs 80 per cent UK).

Jamie Grant | contributed

Scottish businesses seem to be taking a more proactive approach to growth than their UK counterparts, with the figures suggesting higher levels of investment across the core drivers of productivity. Firms here are more likely to be investing in digital capability (41 per cent Vs 34 per cent), workforce skills (38 per cent vs 36 per cent) and research and development (37 per cent vs 34 per cent) pointing to a joined-up strategy to strengthen long-term competitiveness. This is matched by a more outward-looking mindset, with higher proportions of businesses here significantly more likely to report increased export activity (49 per cent vs 41 per cent).

Against that backdrop, what are business leaders consistently telling us they need next?

Three priorities stand out:

First, investment certainty. Clarity around infrastructure, skills and planning is fundamental to unlocking private investment. Businesses can manage risk - but they need a stable framework within which to do so.

Second, stronger support for scaling mid-sized firms. Much of Scotland’s economic potential sits with businesses that are beyond start-up stage but not yet operating at full scale. Supporting these companies - particularly exporters and regional champions - will be critical to long-term growth.

Third, deeper partnerships. No single institution can solve these challenges alone. The most impactful progress happens when government, finance and industry work together at pace - aligning capital, policy and delivery.

These are not abstract policy debates. They are practical enablers of growth that determine whether Scotland captures the full value of its innovation.

Supporting Scotland’s growth means financing investment - from working capital through to large-scale infrastructure and project deployment. It means helping businesses navigate export markets and manage risk. And it means convening conversations that bring together different parts of the ecosystem to accelerate progress. It means focusing not just on where the economy is today, but on how we collectively move it forward.

Barclays is putting some real weight behind that ambition. Through our Business Prosperity Fund, the bank has made £22bn available this year to support UK businesses - whether that’s funding new growth projects or refinancing existing ones. It’s open to both Business Banking and Corporate Banking clients and is essentially designed to make it easier for firms to invest in expanding operations, upgrading technology or building longer-term resilience.

For businesses looking to move from intent to action, access to funding like this is going to be an important part of the picture.

As the Business Prosperity Index findings suggest, there’s no shortage of optimism about Scotland’s long-term prospects. The data points to a growing sense of confidence and ambition among Scottish businesses - one that is being translated into tangible investment and outward-looking growth strategies. Firms are choosing to invest in the fundamentals of long-term competitiveness; digital capability, skills and innovation - while actively seeking opportunities beyond the UK through increased export activity.

As a new government and cabinet take shape, there is a clear alignment between public and private sector priorities: a shared focus on growth, productivity and positioning Scotland competitively on the international stage. The opportunity now is to build on this momentum creating the conditions that allow businesses to scale, invest and thrive.

There is perhaps a fitting parallel with Scotland’s long-awaited return to the football World Cup. After years of rebuilding, the focus is not simply on participation, but on preparation - investing in talent, sharpening capabilities and stepping confidently onto the global stage.

In much the same way, Scottish businesses are not standing still in the face of uncertainty. They are investing, adapting and looking outward with a clear sense that the next phase is about competing, and succeeding, internationally.

Jamie Grant is Head of Barclays Corporate Banking, Scotland