Scotland is in a prime position to capitalise on demand for 'green' cars, but a lack of joined-up thinking could stall progress

FOR decades they were seen more as a rather quirky way for milkmen and well-heeled golfers to get around than a serious transport option. But the headline figures in last week's announcement by Nissan confirmed that mass-market electric vehicles are fast becoming a serious business for the UK.

From 2013, 50,000 of the car-maker's Leaf electric vehicles will be rolling off the production line at its Sunderland plant as part of a 420 million investment backed by more than 20m of UK government grants. The announcement will protect an estimated 2,000 jobs in the north-east of England, with a further 800 created or supported by a battery manufacturing plant.

For those charged with economic development in the region it was a significant triumph in the face of fierce competition from a number of European plants for the investment. It is also seen as further evidence of the sea-change in attitude to electric vehicles, the wider use of which is increasingly seen as vital if carbon reduction targets are to be met.

"It has been a rather stop-start industry until now, but the time has come for electric vehicles," said Sam Gardner, WWF Scotland's climate policy officer. "The reality is if we are going to meet our emissions reductions targets we will need to see a significant increase in the number of them on our roads along with a reduction in vehicle road miles."

When the first Leaf leaves the north-east factory, it will have been 180 years since Robert Anderson invented the world's first electric carriage in Aberdeen. Electric car production went on to dominate the early car market before the internal combustion engine took hold.

But the drive to find lower carbon-emitting forms of transport and rising oil prices mean competition is growing apace among major manufacturers to gain leadership in electric and hybrid cars.

Until fairly recently the only electric models available have been niche vehicles such as the tiny G-Wiz commuter car or the Tesla Roadster sports model, but the coming years will bring a flood of new models from major manufacturers.

While there are still significant issues to overcome around cost, battery range (the Leaf will be able to travel up to 100 miles when it's first launched) and the charging infrastructure needed, supporters believe the scale of investment now being seen from every major car manufacturer will ensure electric vehicles will be a common sight on roads in the years ahead.

Nissan's was the latest in a string of recent positives for the industry, including Ford's announcement that it is to start introducing all-electric versions of models, including the Focus, in 2012.

Last month Dundee-based battery developer Axeon, Europe's largest independent lithium-ion systems supplier, also announced it was to develop a new high-capacity battery for the electric Citron C1 ev'ie, manufactured by the UK-based Electric Car Corporation.

And to fill the gap before mass-market vehicles arrive from Ford, Peoples dealership chairman Brian Gilda has said he is actively looking at selling cut-price Chinese electric vehicles at his Scottish outlets.

Despite the growing swell of interest, forecasts of the take-up of all-electric vehicles vary widely. Nissan executives have quoted a figure of 10 per cent by 2020 but other car manufacturers are thought to believe the figure is more likely to be nearer 2 per cent.

But while the speed of future take-up is open to debate, there is no doubt the electric vehicle industry is growing rapidly ahead of the expected demand.

According to Axeon and Allied Electric, Scotland is currently in a prime position to capitalise.

Earlier this year they formed an alliance with WWF Scotland to call on the Scottish Government – ahead of the publication of its Low Carbon Vehicle action plan – to accelerate the take-up of electric vehicles, pressing for public sector fleet buyers to take a lead.

Paul Nelson, managing director of Glasgow-based Allied Electric which is hoping to convert up to 250 Peugeot cars, vans and taxis to electric this year, believes large-scale orders from the public sector would rapidly increase wider uptake by driving down costs.

"If the UK and Scottish Government want to support this industry they should buy the vehicles. If Allied Electric could produce 1,000 vehicles a year we would be able to knock 10,000 off the price of our vehicles, which would make a huge difference."

Nelson believes subsidies for purchasers will also be vital to achieve the volume sales needed to get economies of scale.

A rapid rollout of the charging infrastructure needed will also be essential if private motorists are to be won over. There are already small-scale trials of electric vehicles and charging points under way – including one involving Allied, Glasgow City Council and ScottishPower which will see 30 vehicles on the city's streets – but transport consultant Derek Halden argues that a wider rollout of the infrastructure needed requires careful planning.

He likened the issues facing the industry now to those faced in the early days of the mobile phone.

"Mobile phones took less than ten years to spread from only a few handsets to something everyone owned, but planning issues with masts proved to be a major barrier," said Halden, of Edinburgh-based DHC.

He believes clarification on planning policy for charging points and on electricity tariffs for charging vehicles will be key.

"Are there going to be charging points built into every new development? Will there be secure charging areas created in residential areas or will people be allowed to trail cables out of their windows? These are the kind of issues which need to be addressed now, before mass-market electric vehicles start to arrive in the showrooms in a couple of years' time."

Until charging points are seen to be widely available, consumers in particular are unlikely to want to take a risk on an electric vehicle even if prices come down.

"It is a chicken and egg situation. If we put the infrastructure in place now, people will be more likely to use electric vehicles in the future," said John Thorne, economic development officer for the Cairngorm National Park Authority, which is currently working with Scottish & Southern Energy to install charging points and is involved in the first rural trial of an electric car in Scotland.

Other charging models are also being developed. Better Place, a California-based company run by Shai Agassi, formerly the president of SAP's Product and Technology Group, is working on a battery swap scheme, where motorists can simply exchange their empty batteries for full ones at petrol stations and continue on their journey – a model Thorne believes could have particular merit in rural Scotland.

Gardner argues the potential synergies between electric cars and Scotland's renewable energy industry are also exciting.

Batteries of electric cars could be charged up when renewable power is most abundant and as they will be largely charged up overnight they can use electricity when it is not in peak demand. "Car batteries could even be used as a huge dispersed electricity grid across Scotland, with electricity suppliers paying car owners to take stored energy from their vehicles at times of peak demand," he said.

While the widespread adoption of electric vehicles is still some time away, after driving the five-year-old electric converted Astra which is on trial in the Cairngorms, Thorne is a convert.

"I've had it up to 70mph, it's got a range of 100 miles and as there's no engine, maintenance is a lot simpler," he said. "The only issue is we've had to introduce health and safety training for those driving it as it's so quiet pedestrians don't hear it."