Goudie attacked over 'poor and misleading' prediction

DR ANDREW Goudie, chief economic adviser to the Scottish Government, has come under scathing attack over his forecast that Scotland stands to suffer a public spending loss of £342 billion.

Independent economist Tony Mackay has fired a critical volley, describing the report as "a poor piece of economic analysis" and "politically biased".

The attack, carried in his latest monthly report on the Scottish economy, singles out Dr Goudie's June 2010 emergency Budget update on the outlook for Scottish Government expenditure for censure.

In this, Dr Goudie warned that it could take until 2025/26 for the Scottish Government budget to return to 2009/10 levels - a total adjustment period of 16 years. Dr Goudie calculated that the ultimate loss would be 342bn.

But says Tony Mackay: "In my opinion the Office of the Chief Economic Adviser should not be allowed to produce such poor quality and misleading work. I do not believe it is sensible to make projections for 16 years and some of the assumptions in the report are very dubious."

Mackay believes that "anyone with a genuine interest in the future of the Scottish economy must accept that there has to be a large and real cut in public spending and a contraction in the size of the public sector."

A Scottish Government spokesperson said: "The Scottish Government believes (the report] increases the urgency of the case for Scotland to secure economic and financial powers so that we can boost growth, employment and revenues in the Scottish economy."