Going Dutch and Danish?

It would take a lot after making four financial offers for a company and getting your nose through the door for talks and still walk away without the prize.

And if Britain's biggest brewer does indeed give up some 250 years of independence to the Danish/Dutch consortium its board can console itself that it has played a bit of a brinkmanship blinder.

At the latest price S&N would have forced the suitors to cough up an extra billion pounds on what they were offering back in October.

Back then, Carlsberg and Heineken were talking about a possible 720p-a-share offer, valuing S&N at 6.8 billion. Three months later and we have a potential bid of 7.8bn. Not bad.

While it is not necessarily the end of the bartering, it must be on a knife-edge now as to whether S&N can screw a final few pence out of its persistent suitors.

Talks are not a recommendation. The feeling is that S&N's board, led by chairman Sir Brian Stewart and chief executive John Dunsmore, will also want the consortium to commit to paying S&N's final dividend for the trading year just finished, widely expected to be 15p a share.

Carlsberg, in particular, might balk at this, as it is already looking financially stretched on the deal.

Heineken, financially speaking, has had the easier ride. When the consortium increased its offer approach from 750p to 780p last week, Carlsberg committed to pay 25p of the extra 30p. And this time the Danes would pay all the extra cash. The reason, of course, is the other key condition that Carlsberg will have to fulfil to gain a recommendation for any bid: transparency on the true value of S&N's jewel in the crown, Baltic Beverages Holding.

BBH is the money-spinning east European joint venture between S&N and Carlsberg and right from the off it has been the "play within a play" in this tortuous, at times torrid, tale.

BBH is the major growth area for both S&N and Carlsberg, particularly through BBH's dominant position in the fast-growing Russian beer market, the third biggest in the world, through its Baltika subsidiary.

All the haggling now is about BBH's value. And as Carlsberg would get the business in the mooted carve-up of S&N with Heineken, any increase in the money on the table is obviously going to come all, or nearly all, from the Danes.

Heineken, which would get the less stellar UK, Portuguese, Finnish, Belgian, US and Indian operations of S&N, has played a canny game tactically but possibly a not-so-clever one strategically.

It has been able to ride on the back of its consortium partner financially because the assets the Dutch would acquire are mature, with less earnings potential, and so with less haggle-room on price.

But many in the brewing sector have questioned whether it is a good thing for Heineken to become more exposed to mature western markets when all the growth story in the industry has been in emerging markets such as Russia, China, India and South America.

That is for another day. The City Takeover Panel has given Carlsberg and Heineken until next Thursday to come up with a firm offer.

As the saying doesn't quite go, it is not over until the fat brewer sings. But that sound you can hear are scales being practised in Copenhagen.

SHURELY shome mistake, as Private Eyemagazine often has it. HMV shares surge on stunning Christmas results?

HMV, one of the previous basket cases on the high street, squeezed between the supermarkets and internet music piracy in its books and music businesses, now a festive star?

Stranger things have happened. Hang on, I'm not too sure about that.

The company's like-for-like sales growth yesterday – 14 per cent in its music stores and 9 per cent groupwide – is a fantastically buoyant contrast to its previous profit warnings.

It has reconfigured its offering, with interactive stores and more online selling, and has turned up trumps apparently only ten months into a three-year turnaround plan.

Simon Fox, poached from electricals chain Kesa, is doing a great job of making sure the famous HMV chain does not become one of those once-famous high street brands destined for obscurity.