Farming: Food marketing guru David Hughes has a mixed message for farmers

Farmers may be back in fashion judging by their increased participation in the marketing and advertising campaigns carried out by major food companies but they should also be aware that they will face "tumultuous times" ahead with major fluctuations in the market prices for their produce.

That was the prediction of David Hughes, professor of food marketing at Imperial College London, addressing more than 100 farmers at a conference organised by H & H Bowe in Carlisle yesterday.

The prediction of more people in the world needing more food lays the positive foundation for optimism in farming, but he warned that there would be many twists on the general assumption that all sectors of farming would benefit.

With the population explosion taking place in Africa and Asia, there was no guarantee that UK producers of beef and lamb would benefit. The poverty in Africa was likely to prevent any major sales to that part of the world.

The situation was different in Asia but the preference there was for white meat protein, such as intensively produced poultry meat or fish. Even pork was only half the price of the red meat produced in the UK and it was unlikely that people would pay twice or three times over the odds to buy beef or lamb.

Beyond that, he told his audience, which included a number of prominent sheep farmers, that lamb was a minority meat which was unlikely to feature as a demand item from some of the population expanding countries.

He believed that no-one should under estimate the ability of farmers throughout the world to increase production if the demand was there. If that occurred then prices would plummet but he added nowadays it only needed a drought or flood and the food equation was upset. "Such situations made politicians nervous," he remarked.

While there is general unrest in the farming industry over current fuel prices, Hughes predicted that it was "quite possible we shall see crude oil being traded at over $200 a barrel".

All that was needed was a hiccup in any one of the top oil producing countries in the world then the price of oil would rocket.

Although food production and oil prices are closely linked, he believed any rise in fuel prices would prove beneficial to farming as it would encourage better efficiency and promote the production of more green energy.