Erikka Askeland: The end of the recession is just so last year, Darling

THREE times must be a charm. The first estimate of the UK's GDP growth at the butt end of 2009 was a measly, blink-and-you-might-miss-it 0.1 per cent. That sort of margin makes economists hold their breath for fear it might disturb the careful balance of figures. But the subsequent first revised estimate saw this flimsy figure thickened a little to 0.3 per cent. And now the latest – and final – count makes it 0.4 per cent.

Welcome news, yes. If the Office for National Statistics figures had slipped the other way then the anguished ululating of pundits would have been deafening.

But the reason we are not celebrating the slight rise is because, frankly, it doesn't change a thing. While it is reassuring that the UK emerged from recession last year – the deepest and longest downturn in our lifetime – what hasn't changed is prospects for this year and next. The end of the recession is just so last year, darling.

The anxious prospects for the UK economy was the main subtext of the televised Chancellor's debate this week. The eager-beaver shadow chancellor George Osborne may have scored populist points with his national insurance tax cuts, but lost the moral high ground by predicating them on Labour's own, and sadly, illusory 11 billion in "efficiency savings".

Although there has been much pleading from business organisations against Labour's proposed "tax on jobs", pledging what amounts to a 5.6bn tax cut undermines the Tories' credibility as the party to take a firmer grip on the UK's debt.

Alistair Darling's stern warning to Osborne, his dark eyebrows beetling, that such moves were "taking a terrible risk with the economy" clanged somewhere deep in the guts of nervous voters.

That it is Darling who can lay claim to overseeing the UK's paralysing 857.5bn of net public sector debt was another point entirely. But the likelihood that voters will opt wholesale to oust the captains of the UK's overburdened, leaky ship of an economy at this stage still looks slim.

In the first instance, Osborne will have to do a lot more to colour in how his new heroes, Sir Peter Gershon and Martin Read, think they can cut 12bn from government spending in the next year and a half.

Labour, for that matter, will too. It would also behove Darling to explain how he still figures on 3 to 3.5 per cent growth in the UK economy while most others are reckoning more in the 1 to 1.7 per cent range.

Because, whatever happened in the last quarter of 2009, it is now 2010 and 2011 that matter. The dreaded spectre of a double dip still haunts many – and that goes for the frothy FTSE 100 too.

The slim recovery of the last quarter of 2009 was based on some of those things that have put us in the mire now: quantitative easing, plus cash for bangers and cuts in VAT. These, like the end of the recession, are other things that are so last year.

There's a boatload of other indicators – mortgage approvals, household debt, lending, public sector cost-cutting, employment and so on and so on – that are bleak and, as of the first part of this year, are still heading the wrong way.

And the upsides for this year look less like silver bullets and more like silver linings – based mainly on exporters taking advantage of a weak pound and interest rates staying rock bottom.

Celebrate the end of 2009? Not if it was better than we can expect in 2010.

Dark clouds still hanging ominously over Gogarburn

STEPHEN Hester must be wondering if the flow of bad news at Royal Bank will ever end, writes Scott Reid.

Anger over bonus payments, demands from on high to lend more dosh and threats of further Stateside probes have created an air of gloom over Gogarburn.

Yesterday's revelation that the bank will have to stump up the thick end of 30 million in fines for breaching competition rules is yet another dark cloud.

In its defence, RBS, quite reasonably, points out that the incident dates back nearly two years – to the Goodwin era – and involved only two members of staff (there's no suggestion Sir Fred or any senior employee was implicated).

It has since introduced more training on competition law to avoid any repeat of the offence.

That penalty from the Office of Fair Trading may sound a lot but, set against the scale of the taxpayer-backed bailout of the bank, it's small change.

With its restructuring plans and disposal programme gaining traction, and share price in recovery mode, the bank will be keen to cough up and put this episode behind it.