Erikka Askeland: Housing figures and pub numbers on the agenda

A NEW batch of economic reports this week are set to gauge the temperature of the UK's frostbitten economy. The Bank of England is expected to report today that mortgage approvals for house purchases weakened slightly further in October to a 17-month low of 46,500.

This would be down from 47,494 in September and substantially below the 70,000-80,000 level that in the past has been considered consistent with stable house prices. Mortgage approvals have actually averaged 90,300 a month since 1993.

In addition, Nationwide will release its house price index for November on Wednesday, which is expected to show that house prices fell 0.5 per cent month-on-month in November, after a drop of 0.7 per cent in October. This would push the year-on-year increase in house prices down to just 0.3 per cent in November against a peak of 10.5 per cent in April.

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The Bank of England is also expected to report today that net consumer credit edged up by just 100 million in October, less than half of the modest 262m rise in September. Consumer credit has averaged just 117m a month over the past six months, which is very low compared to past norms.

Is the jittery economy driving people in UK to drink? Two pub chains are both expected to report profits hikes this week, but figures show that sales have been driven by food as well as alcohol.

Pub chain and brewer Greene King, which reports half-year results on Friday, has been taking advantage of growing food sales in recent months. Food now accounts for about 37 per cent of its sales from managed pubs, which generated record revenues of 589.2m in the year to 2 May.

The Bury St Edmunds-based company has also been converting tenanted pubs to its more profitable managed Hungry Horse and Old English brands.

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The company said in July it planned to reduce the number of tenanted pubs from 1,584 to 1,200, while increasing the number of managed premises from 888 to 1,100.

Its brewing divisions, which produce beers including Greene King IPA and Old Speckled Hen, outperformed the declining ale market in the first 18 weeks of the half-year.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank predict Greene King will make 66m pre-tax profits in the first half, a 6 per cent increase year on year.

Pub company and brewer Marston's is also expected to show the benefits of increasing food sales when it reports its full-year results on Thursday.The Pitcher & Piano and Tavern Table operator, which runs some 2,000 pubs, is expected to announce a 4.6 per cent hike in pre-tax profits to 73.5m.

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Sales have benefited from its F-Plan strategy, which sees it focus on food, families, females and forty- and fifty-somethings.

Its 489 managed pubs have led the growth in the past year, with sales of food and drink having increased by 2.5 per cent and 1.4 per cent respectively.

It opened 15 new managed sites in the year, which generated turnover and profits ahead of expectations, it said.

Analysts at Numis estimate that the managed estate returned to double-digit profit growth in the second half of the year.

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They expect this trend to continue for the next two years, helped by its plans to open 20 new pubs next year and 25 the year after.

The Wolverhampton-based company's tenanted and leased estate is still in like-for-like sales decline, but analysts are encouraged by the drop in the rate of decline from 4.5 per cent earlier in the year to 3.7 per cent for the full year.

Its beer business, which brews Pedigree, Hobgoblin and Brakspear, is likely to report improved turnover and operating profits.

Soft drinks giant Britvic is expected to report a 22.4 per cent growth in full-year operating profits on Thursday, despite the poor performance of its Irish business.

A consensus of analysts' opinions expects the company - which makes Robinsons, J2O, Fruit Shoot and Tango and bottles Pepsi and 7Up - to report operating profits of 134.8m for the year.

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