Decline in livestock numbers may have finally bottomed out

BOTH cattle and sheep numbers in Scotland continued to decline last year, but most industry leaders and politicians now feel the decline has bottomed out.

The figures emerging yesterday from the December 2009 agricultural census show the number of cattle in Scotland fell by 21,000, from 1.78 million to 1.76 million. This is a decrease of 1.2 per cent.

Sheep numbers also fell, down 2.2 per cent from 4.7 million to 4.6 million, a drop of 104,000.

Rural affairs secretary Richard Lochhead saw the figures as "welcome signs that the rate of decline in cattle and sheep numbers appears to have slowed and stocking levels may be stabilising".

He qualified his response by adding that the trends differed across regions and numbers remained low in certain areas.

However, with livestock prices being good and prospects for a continued strong demand for meat, he believed it pointed to a very positive future.

"Overall, these figures are very much as expected and give some cause for optimism for the future of livestock production in Scotland. These views are reinforced by feedback from industry."

However, Alan Craig, president of the Scottish Association of Meat Wholesalers, was less than convinced. While recognising there was a welcome slow-down in the decline in cattle and sheep production, he maintained: "The trend is still downwards and therefore heading in the wrong direction."

NFU Scotland president Jim McLaren reckoned better prices in the livestock sector were starting to feed through and provide some stability in numbers, following several years of decline.

McLaren highlighted the pig sector, where numbers, especially of gilts, have risen by 12,000 or 3.2 per cent, leaving the national pig herd at 395,000.

Poultry numbers were also up with a third of a million more hens, raising the national flock by 3.2 per cent to 13.6 million.

In fact, McLaren urged livestock producers to show a little caution. He said: "It is vital that the livestock sector in general does not overreact to these better prices, and restock beyond that which the market can absorb."

A more downbeat view came from Conservative rural affairs spokesman John Scott, MSP, who described the fall in cattle and sheep numbers as "disturbing".

He said: "I had hoped that a stronger market would reverse this decline in beef and sheep numbers, but regrettably this is not the case."

Scott, himself a farmer, believed there were hard times on the horizon. He expressed regret that some producers were still moving out of the industry because of a historic lack of profitability and also in anticipation of more difficult times post-2013.

The census figures also reveal either a drastic loss of confidence in the spring barley market or the open autumn as winter wheat sowings rocketed by 17.3 per cent, resulting in 104,000 hectares having been sown at the turn of the year. More winter wheat has gone into the ground since the census date.

The oilseed rape acreage also increased, rising from 29,000 hectares to 33,000 hectares, a rise of 14.7 per cent.