Child's play

It is a highly stressful environment that sees millions of pounds bought and sold everyday in the complex world of the stockmarket where, in a matter of minutes, businesses can become a success or a failure.

But following a week of extreme financial turbulence that has wreaked havoc with some of the world's major economies, a four-year-old girl has proven that playing the stockmarket is really just a game that anyone can play.

Tia Laverne Roberts, from south-east London, won a share prediction contest against an experienced investor and an astrologer to show the world of high finance is purely child's play.

Tia, Christeen Skinner, a financial astrologer, and Mark Goodson a private investor, were each given a fantasy share portfolio of 5,000 for the experiment to launch National Science Week. Each chose four companies and their losses and gains were tracked throughout the week.

Using a "random method" to pick her shares – grabbing at notes marked one to 100, representing the FTSE 100, as they fluttered down from the ceiling – Tia lost just 4.5 per cent on her portfolio.

The youngster didn't quite live up to her prediction that she was "going to make mummy a fortune".

This compared with the experienced Mr Goodson, who lost seven per cent, and Ms Skinner who lost ten per cent – possibly warning potential investors that looking to the movements of the heavens for advice might not be such a good idea.

The financial astrologer had used the "birthdate" when companies were formed to draw up an astrological chart.

During a week which saw billions of pounds wiped off value of leading stocks at all the major international stock exchanges, Tia managed to lose just 231, Mr Goodson gave up 360 and Ms Skinner was 498 worse off.

Tia had been consistently ahead and one day after starting the experiment, last Friday, she was down 11, beating both the expert, who was down 178, and the astrologer who lost 294.

Dr Wiseman said: "Everyone started off with the same sum of money, they could only invest in the FTSE 100, so it's a kind of level playing field. We were looking at short-term predictions. My prediction was that all three of them would actually make a small loss."

While the experiment was "just a bit of fun" Ms Skinner, who believed her stocks had actually performed better than she had expected, said: "I was a bit distressed by the experiments. The markets have been falling and lots of people have lost money.

"It's kind of sick to take part in a game while that has been happening."

Mr Goodson claimed yesterday that he had never believed he would win the competition, adding: "I said at the outset of the experiment that I confidently expected to finish bottom and that Tia would win."

As the news was delivered at the Barclays Stockbrokers premises in Murray House in London yesterday experts denied that their army of highly paid financial analysts had been damaged by the experiment, claiming that investments can only be properly judged over a period of 12 months.

But Dr Richard Wiseman, who organised the experiment, has thrown down the challenge for another financial analyst to take part in the experiment over a longer period of time.

He added: "We have said it before and I am totally up for performing the experiments over a longer period."

However, Henry Potts, investment manager at Barclays Stock Brokers, who said that all historical precedents showed investing in the stock market was a good idea, refused to be drawn into the challenge, saying: "That's something for the compliance guys to discuss. But I am confident we would win as long we are not up against Tia."

For all her hard work the youngster was rewarded with a trip to McDonalds – after announcing that a career as a stockbroker was not on the cards. She would rather be an actor or a teacher.

Sharon Roberts, Tia's mother, said: "It's up to her. She needs an education first and she is very independent."

Tia, Mr Goodson and Ms Skinner made their investments through the Barclays Sharedeal Online and were allowed one change on Tuesday at midday. Both Tia and Ms Skinner chose to do that, while Mr Goodson held firm with his choices.

Ms Skinner was the biggest loser there as well when she sold Baltimore Technology, bought at 210p, for a loss of 37.5p.

Sandie Roberts, a senior accountant manager at Barclays Stock Brokers, said: "The stockmarket hasn't been at its best this week, hitting its lowest point since 1998, and to take such a small snapshot isn't really all that fair. Investments are for the long term.

"But then this experiment was just a bit of fun and it has demystified the stockmarket in one fell swoop."

But Tia is not the first time highly educated financial analysts have been shown up at their own game.

In Sweden a six-year-old chimpanzee, named Ola, managed to compile a portfolio of investments which beat five of the country's leading financial experts.

The chimpanzee stuck five darts into a list of companies and his 1,000 was invested on the basis of where they landed.

At the end of the experiment the value of Ola's

portfolio had increased by 154.20, while that of his closest competitor had increased by only 128.60.

Ola had trailed for much of the period, but a wise investment in a rubber products company, whose stock increased in value by 44 per cent from 18.20 to 26.30, saw him win the competition.