Andrew Arbuckle: Spring brings its own joys, but a reality check won't be far behind

I DO not think you would get any bookmaker to provide odds on which season of the year comes out favourite in a farmer's year.

Without doubt, it would be spring, especially this year after the long, tedious and costly winter - and especially this year when the weather in April has been largely benign.

The reason is because it provides a fresh beginning, an opportunity to do whatever you do in the farming scene better than previously. In every farmer's mind this is the year where it all comes together and this is the time of year when it happens.

There is an added spring in the step of those on the land this year. This is particularly so in the arable world, but with record prices for lambs and beef finishers now being offered more than 3 per kilo, most sectors in the industry are in good heart.

Added to this year's optimism is a world that seems to be taking increasing notice of food production.

And even if everyone is more sceptical than they used to be when considering the predictions of bankers, last week we had Lloyds Banking Group suggesting agriculture had "turned the corner" and was heading into a more profitable era.

They pointed out that after four years where agricultural production in the UK had dropped, there now seemed a change, with more food being produced and that overall the outlook was positive.

Most farmers and those involved in the industry are so busy working on their farms that they are immune from the sweet talking hordes of "wannabe" politicians roaming the countryside at present.

Even if they did search for the manifestos of the main parties to see what the politicos were promising, they would find nothing to blight any positive thoughts on the future of the farming industry.

Unlike some well-known farming industry figures, I pass no comment on the various proposals or even in the case of one major party, their lack of rural proposals.

I will merely relate one anecdote that went round the agricultural press of an outgoing government having listed its achievements and then placed a tick beside these. "It is every school boy's dream," a colleague remarked, "marking up your own school report card."

Regardless of whether the positivity comes from politicians or bankers, I am concerned about all this optimism.

After a lifetime in farming, it does not come naturally to me that everything will be hunky dory. Life is not like that. There are always a few black clouds coming over the horizon.I can confidently predict there will be weather-related problems; these problems will not just hamper farmers in this part of the world, but will cause widespread destruction of crops and livestock in other parts of the globe. That is because one of the benefits of living in this little island is that there are fewer extremes of weather.

I cannot be more specific about where the climate will play its latest version of nasty tricks; neither can I say how it will do so, but with a lot of options from drought to flood not to count disease and pestilence, there are more than sufficient options to curb production.

And then there will be the political problems. Although everyone is saying the sun is shining at present, you can bet your proverbial bottom dollar that there will be a change in tone in two weeks' time after the Scottish Parliamentary votes have been counted.

It will be either "all the money has been spent by the previous lot" or it will be "the UK government is to blame". The raw fact remains that the Scottish budget will be reduced in the coming years and the rural sector will face cuts.

And apart from a few Brussels civil servants, is there anyone who believes that the member states of the European Union will roll over and lob an additional inflation-bursting 4.9 per cent into the EU kitty?

Only honest politicians will tell you that the CAP budget will be reduced, and the only question is by how much and how the great CAP budgetary pudding will be sliced up.

Yes, it is a good time of year, but let us not become too carried away with the odd days of sunshine that we have been having. For many, it's being miserable (realistic) that keeps us going.