Andrew Arbuckle: Feel-good factor in the field of cereal crops

There was a bit of symbolism last week as what must be the first sunshine this winter shone on a meeting of cereal growers gathered in Perth to hear the experts give their view of the future.

The news was upbeat and it was also reasonably long term with few dark economic clouds hovering above that might blight the financial future.

Even if farmers seldom show emotion and most definitely never admit to making much money, there was definitely a feel-good factor at the meeting.

It is also true to say that outside the hall there were still more than a few slippy patches of ice and snow hanging around and if I am allowed to mix a metaphor, these potential hazards might also signify it is dangerous to count your chickens before they are hatched.

The chairman did point out that few had actually seen their crops for the past six weeks and worried if everyone could be sure that all was well with the young shoots of the 2011 crop as it lay under the snow and ice. Since the meeting that has changed in some cases to lying under pools of water.

A few of the older generation could remember when there used to be a problem of winter hardiness in oilseed rape and crops sometimes had to be re-sown. And a few who travel further afield know that countries such as the Ukraine and Canada often have problems with their autumn sown crops following a severe winter.

Time will tell on this issue but those crop consultants who have been poking around under the ice reckon there are no big problems. But we shall see.

And then there was a talk on new diseases that are now considered to be potentially economically important. Diseases such as tan spot and cephalosporium leaf stripe in wheat are new to me. When I heard of these newcomers, I thought that if I am allowed to come back in the next world, I would like to specialise in either animal or plant diseases.

The reason why is obvious. You get a solution to some pest or disease and then you start worrying about others and you never run out of work. That is a rather facile comment on a small group of people whom I secretly envy for the progressive work they do in agriculture.

But apart from these possible blips on the cereal horizon, it was largely unbounded but carefully controlled optimism. In fact even if not discussed openly, there is a view that wheat could easily go up to 240 per tonne and there are a few canny Scottish growers with their grain stores still full from the 2010 crop. There might even be one Perthshire farmer holding on to his 2009 crop or is that a self-circulated rumour?

The complete turnaround in the value of cereals led me to thinking of the consequences of a high grain price.This comes right back to the "up corn down horn" economic theory with the financial equation now heavily against livestock producers faced with ever-rising feed bills.

The dairymen are already grabbing the headlines though a range of activities highlighting their economic woes. I would not like to milk cows seven days a week for every week of the year but perhaps someone in the milk industry can explain to me why, when things are so bad, there has actually been an increase in the numbers of dairy cows in Scotland last year.

Another reason for raising this question is one of the protesters last month was quoted as saying he was losing money milking his 800 cows and this was influencing his decision on whether to increase cow numbers up to 1,500. Sometimes dairy politics are beyond me.

Although there has been little said about the pig and poultry sectors, the effect of the grain price rise has been more immediate and more acute in these enterprises.

Both operations gobble up large tonnages of cereals and producers of bacon and eggs are not making money - indeed they might well be losing money hand over fist.

Such a loss making situation is hard to sustain and I am sure that both hen and pig numbers will slide dramatically and quickly. The danger for Scotland is we do not have a very big pig industry left and any loss of critical mass will have wider consequences.

I cannot think of a solution but one might be for both the UK and Scottish governments to take a robust attitude to health and welfare standards on pig and poultry meat coming into the UK.