Sue Gyford: Don't leave your summer holiday gamble to chance

An unpredictable cloud of volcanic ash could ground your flight, your British Airways cabin crew could go on strike, and for a second year running the recession means budgets are tight, with the added problem that your holiday firm could go to the wall before your plane even leaves the tarmac.

Not only that, the weak pound means that if you do get away, the sangria and souvenirs could stretch your spending money to the limit.

Last year was the year of the staycation, with the British travel industry cashing in on the trend for holidays at home. But this year, just as things were starting to look up for overseas travel, the ash cloud and the British Airways strikes have hit hard.

So with all these problems, are frustrated travellers staying home again?

Mark Jones, the owner of Frutin Travel in Great Junction Street, says that, despite the multiple difficulties, many of the Capital's travellers are looking abroad again after a year at home.

"I think there is a little bit more positivity in the European holidays this year," he says. "Possibly the people who stayed at home last year realised it's not that much cheaper, because of the cost of holidays in Cornwall or Dorset, and the money that you spend in the UK compared to the money you can spend in European countries. And of course the unpredictability of the weather if you stay in the UK is a factor.

"I think obviously people are a bit more cautious about committing to travel that involves going by aeroplane. Now that we know the dates that BA are striking we can work round that. With regards to volcanic ash, that's obviously more unpredictable, but I think people are prepared to look further into the future and say maybe June, July, August, we should be able to travel by then."

But he says the fallout from the Eyjafjallajokull eruption has had a bearing on the overseas destinations favoured by holidaymakers, with people going east to the Greek Islands, Turkey, Bulgaria or Cyprus.

This also means people can escape the eurozone, he adds: "Turkey and Bulgaria in particular mean people get better value for money. Although Turkey accepts the euro now, they still accept lira as well, and Bulgaria is still on the lev."

The longer-term effects of all these problems could take time to unfold. BAA announced on Monday that during April Edinburgh Airport lost just over quarter of its expected passengers – 185,000 people – to the ash cloud.

The airport's flight schedules are already fixed for this summer, but it is bracing itself for the future.

A spokesman for Edinburgh Airport said: "It's still too early to accurately predict the long-term effects of the ash cloud on travel trends. We simply don't know how it will affect confidence."

So if you are heading overseas, how can you protect your holiday in the face of unpredictable airport closures?

Sean Tipton, a spokesman for travel trade association ABTA, says: "The best way to do it, rather than book independently, is to take a traditional package holiday. We've seen a marked difference in how people have been treated depending on how they've booked their holidays. If your flight is cancelled and you can't go, tour operators are saying 'You can rebook with us or you can have your money back,' whereas people who've made their independent arrangements, they've got their money back for their flights but there will be cancellation charges for the hotels."

EU airlines are legally obliged to reimburse passengers for accommodation and reasonable expenses if the ash cloud leaves them stranded abroad, but many independent travellers have had to pay out of their own pocket in the first instance, and then claim it back.

If you're going further afield, it is also worth bearing in mind that the legislation requiring airlines to reimburse flight costs and expenses to delayed passengers only applies to flights within the EU and to EU airlines, wherever they fly. So if you are travelling outside the EU, a European airline might be the safest.

While Mr Jones acknowledges that he has a vested interest in putting out such a message, he says he has seen for himself the risks of planning a holiday independently in the current climate: "It's quite predictable for a travel agent to say 'use a travel agent', but with regards to protection, the travel agent generally speaking offers more security.

"I can't tell you the number of people I've had phone me saying 'I've got a flight booked with a budget airline and I've got my accommodation booked elsewhere, can you help me?' Acts of God generally aren't covered by insurance companies, but package tour operators will accommodate you and look after you."

With no end in sight to either the volcanic ash cloud, the bitter BA disputes or the financial crisis, it would be brave soul who plans for a summer break abroad this year.

For those that do, however, the advice couldn't be clearer – make sure you get professional help, so your summer holiday doesn't end in disaster.