Nature's crystal ball: Can we trust the signs?

But in the days before modern technology and Michael Fish, our ancestors used signs from nature and the world around them to predict what the weather was going to do.

And although the weather is important to us - people talked of little else during our dismal summer - it was vital to those in centuries past when a harsh winter could spell starvation.

Even with all the Met Office’s technology, forecasters don’t get it right all the time.

A spokesman says its 24-hour forecast is right six times out of seven and its three-day predictions are as accurate today as its one-day forecasts were 20 years ago. "Essentially, the way we forecast the weather is by taking a snapshot of the current situation and feeding it into the supercomputers.

"They carry out calculations based on past weather patterns and mathematical equations to determine how the weather will change at any given time."

But, despite the technology, some of those old wives’ tales have stuck. Earlier this week, waxwings - pink-feathered birds - were reported to be flying into Scotland from Scandinavia in their thousands.

The RSPB said this could herald a very harsh winter: birds, it seems, get an advance warning from Mother Nature and make their preparations to suit. So what - according to the old wives - are the clues for predicting winter weather?

1. WAXWINGS

When these pink visitors take a holiday from Scandinavia and descend on Scotland, according to the old wives’ tale, it means one thing: a cold, harsh winter. And this week has seen the largest influx recorded in Scotland - 2000 birds as opposed to the 700 last year. Stuart Housden, director of RSPB Scotland, explains: "Thousands have been recorded already, feasting on the berries of hedgerows and in gardens and town parks."

Any truth in it?

Jonathan Osbourne, of RSPB Scotland, says: "I’m not really sure that there is any real scientific evidence to back the claim up.

We tend to see large numbers of waxwings coming over here when the breeding season has been good, but when there has been a poor berry harvest. They come over to Scotland because the food supply over here is particularly bountiful, and this year we have had a staggering berry crop which has attracted them to our shores."

So no truth in it at all? "You never know," says Osbourne. "We’ll have to wait until later in the year to find out whether the birds have brought a severe winter with them or not."

2. CALVES BORN WHITE DURING THE WINTER SEASON

They say that if the first calf born during the winter season is white, the winter will be a harsh one. So, do Lothian farmers know something we don’t?

Bill Osborne, a farmer from Gorebridge, says: "I can safely say that I’ve seen no white calves nor heard of any white calves being born.

"Even if it was to be a cold winter, it would be pretty hard for a black Aberdeen Angus to give birth to a white calf. You aren’t going to get it!"

Any truth in it?

Iain Riddell, senior beef and sheep consultant at the Scottish Agricultural College, says: "There is no truth in that whatsoever. I expect it came about because the white reminds people of winter, but in my opinion it is an indication that the farmer used a Charolais bull [which is white]!

Old wives’ verdict: Ditch that hat and those gloves

3. A GOOSE’S BREASTBONE

Another old myth and weather predictor once widely used in the UK and still practised in the United States is the breastbone of a killed goose. Weather prophets in Southern Illinois and the Ozark Hills in Missouri still examine the breastbones of wild geese. If they are thick and opaque, the winter ahead is said to be hard and cold. If they’re white, winter will be snowy white.

Any truth in it?

We asked expert butcher John Brash, owner of Murrayfield’s John Brash Family Butcher, who sells dozens of geese a year to customers, what the breastbones he’s seen have been like this year. "We don’t get our geese in for another month, as they only really sell over the festive period so I couldn’t tell you." Ah.

Hmm, so who else would know how this autumn’s geese breastbones are shaping up? Poultry farmer Simon Mackay, from East Linton, gives his geese breasts a prod and says, if the weather predictor is correct, we will be in for a mild winter. But he does add: "I’ve never heard of this before and I’ve certainly never noticed thick goose breastbones."

Could there be any truth in the story? Brash says: "Most good geese should have a thick and opaque to white breastbone as it signifies a healthy, good quality bird."

4. SQUIRRELS GATHERING NUTS IN A FLURRY

This should "cause snow to gather in a hurry". Those who’ve seen the film Ice Age will recall squirrel Scrat’s desperate attempt to bury his nuts before the big freeze. Well, folklore says if the winter months are going to be severe, the cold weather begins earlier and the animals need to bury more food in a shorter space of time. They also need more debris to use as nest insulation.

Any truth in it?

A spokeswoman for the SSPCA says: "We don’t really monitor that side of squirrel activity, but the animals around our headquarters appear to be quite frisky at the moment." So, should we be watching the squirrels as opposed to the weather reports? "Who’s to say there isn’t at least some truth in these old wives tales?" says the spokeswoman. "After all, these animals are used to surviving in all sorts of weather and have to prepare themselves for the changing of the seasons.

"Maybe animals are aware of an upcoming change in the climate and adapt their behaviour to cope."

5. FRUIT TREES

Legend has it that if fruit trees bloom twice in a year, it is a certain sign winter will be severe. So, have Edinburgh’s plants been blooming?

"Yes," says Donald Mitchell, adviser of horticultural studies at the Scottish Agricultural College. "I’ve definitely noticed plants blooming twice - there’s been lots of berries and fruit, and I did pick up on this."

Any truth in it?

Mitchell adds: "We’re seeing this second bloom not because of the weather to come, but because of the weather we’ve had. We enjoyed a great summer last year and a good spring so the plants are still enjoying the benefits of this. They can’t predict the future weather, just as people can’t."

6. DRY SUMMER, LONG COLD WINTER

Well, after the summer we’ve had, surely this means Scotland is in for a mild winter? Or does it?

Any truth in it?A spokesman for the Met Office says: "There isn’t really any correlation between the seasons when we predict long-term weather patterns. Even though Scotland had a particularly wet summer, the conditions we see during one season don’t really tend to affect those in another.

"Our long-term forecast suggests Scotland will see a warmer-than-average winter. But the winter prediction also tends to be the least reliable we deal with."

7. THICK ONION SKINS

Weather lore states: "Onion skins very thin, mild winter coming in; onion skins thick and tough, coming winter cold and rough."

So how are our onions? Andy McGregor, chef at Blonde Restaurant in Newington and Evening News columnist, says he’s not noticed any difference in the skins of the onions he’s been chopping in recent weeks.

He says: "All our onion skins have tended to be the same, and not unusually thick, so no. But I will be having a good look from now on!"

Any truth in it?

Dr Steve Smith has doubts. The Edinburgh University botany expert says: "I’ve never heard of this and I am extremely sceptical as to whether thick onion skins mean a cold winter."

8. SHEEP’S GNASHERS

If sheep gnash their teeth during round-up in the autumn, the coming winter will be hard, goes the theory. Sheep have a long-standing reputation for just following each other around like, well, sheep. They also seem pretty harmless and fluffy and oblivious to the weather - but are they?

Willie Sanderson, sheep farmer at Black Shiels Farm near Pathhead, says: "My sheep are all in the low-lying fields [after being rounded up]. I did not notice them gnashing their teeth at all!"

Any truth in it?

Don’t breathe a sigh of relief just yet. Experts say the myth is rubbish. Iain Riddell says: "Sheep do gnash their teeth when they are ruminating sometimes, and I suppose it could be a sign of frustration, but it has nothing to do with predicting the weather."

9. ACHES AND PAINS

Aches and pains in people’s corns or bunions, as well as twinges of rheumatism or arthritis, are supposed to be an indication of a cold winter ahead.

It is known that conditions such as arthritis and rheumatism are aggravated by falling temperatures. But weather lore also has it that aching corns or twinges in joints in sufferers of arthritis actually foretell colder weather ahead.

So have there been any signs in the doctor’s surgery of a freezing winter ahead? Not according to Dr Ian McKee, a GP in Sighthill and Wester Hailes. He says simply: "No, I can’t say that I have seen lots of these types of complaints."

Any truth in it?

Dr McKee adds: "There are definitely illnesses which are weather-related, but it is more related to the weather at the time than the weather in the future.

"If there is a spell of abnormally warm weather and then wet weather we get a lot more viral illnesses, so GPs often actually hope for a short, sharp frost to nip those viruses in the bud."

10. LONG ANIMAL FUR

It’s said that if an animal’s fur becomes long and thick during the autumn months, it means that there will be a cold winter ahead. However, keepers at Edinburgh Zoo haven’t noticed any unusually furry animals - so is it mild ahead?

Any truth in it?

Iain Valentine, head of animals, conservation and education at Edinburgh Zoo says: "Animals cannot predict what the weather is going to be like in a month’s time no more than we can, so it is unlikely that they would grow an extra thick coat because they know it’s going to be extra cold.

"Changes, both physically and mentally, in animals that live in our temperate climate, on our latitude on the planet are governed by a few things including temperature, light levels and food availability."

Additional reporting by Julia Horton and Adrian Mather