Hibs fans thinking the unthinkable as relegation fears grow

Fans face up to the reality of relegation in May 1998

But while Hearts are bidding to split the Old Firm at the top of the table, Hibs find themselves in the thick of a relegation fight.

So tonight takes on special significance when Hibs play host to fellow strugglers St Mirren.

Victory would mean they climb over Saints, with a little breathing space opening up. Defeat would be a disaster, cutting Hibs and Hamilton Accies adrift at the bottom of the table.

Today some of the UK's top football financiers warned of the perils of possible relegation for the Easter Road side. But they also spoke of the sound management and savvy transfers that have netted the club millions of pounds from players they have brought through the ranks. Their debt in 2009, at 3,584,000, was one tenth of the 31,106,000 of city rivals Hearts.

Although their profits dropped in the year ending July 2010, Hibs saw a bottom line profit for the sixth consecutive year.

The January transfer window offered Colin Calderwood the first opportunity to begin reshaping the squad he had inherited from John Hughes, and Hibs still have plenty of time to turn things around.

But if Hibs' fans' worst nightmare came true, what impact would it have on the club and its home city?

Neil Patey, a partner in transition advisory services at auditors Ernst & Young, and a former advisor to Roman Abramovich, said that although the side were better placed than most to cope with relegation, any fall into the First Division would cost them up to 2 million in lost TV revenue and sponsorship.

He said: "The starting point is a positive, which is that Hibs have been one of the best financially-run clubs over the last five or six years, so they're not in dire straits. That said, at the top line you would have immediately reduced money from being in the First Division.

"If you finished fifth in the SPL, as opposed to finishing first in the First Division, it's about 1m difference, give or take. Without the SPL reforms you could stand to lose 1m on media income and very easily seeing that double to 2m if you take in attendances. However, under the proposed league reforms that would actually come down quite a lot, and they could still expect to get around 700,000 for a First Division top spot."

In the event of relegation, Hibs would receive a 250,000 parachute payment from the SPL.

Mr Patey said that sponsorship revenue could drop also, but insisted that the loss of the Old Firm fixtures and the Edinburgh derby would affect the side the most. "You'll lose a lot of away fans and gate revenue. I think it's a bad thing for Hearts as well because they'd lose attendance money in the derby."

He added: "Hibs are good at running a tight financial ship. In reality, the managers would take a gamble, not cut the squad and prepare to make a loss for a year. They could have a good chance of returning to the SPL in one season."

Last time Hibs were relegated, attendances initially dropped from 12,000 to 10,500, mainly due to a fall in visiting fans.

The view of David Glen, PwC partner and author of the SPL annual report, is that a team such as Hibs would need a one-season return to the SPL, or risk facing administration.

He said: "The biggest question facing a club is whether this is seen as a short or long-term situation. If it is the former, they could continue to maintain a structure akin to the Premier League in order to be in a strong position to bounce back up. However, the risk is that if the strategy doesn't work, they could, like Dundee FC, end up in administration."

Hibs legend Pat Stanton said: "At the moment they're in a fight, there's no kidding themselves.

"The manager has had time to look at the players, and bring some new faces in, but now he needs players who are going to fight.

"I know the attendance hasn't been great lately, but the supporters will respond to 11 players in green and white showing 100 per cent."

Mr Stanton added that Edinburgh benefits from having two top-division teams and that it would suffer if one was lost.

He said: "Football teams need one another, like Rangers and Celtic, Manchester United and Manchester City, even Hearts supporters need the Hibs there as well.

"Edinburgh is a capital city and Hibs means a lot to a lot of people."

Managing director of Edinburgh Chamber of Commerce, Graham Birse, said: "There would be a knock-on impact on Edinburgh if Hibernian was relegated but it would not be as significant as it would be if we were a one-club city."

He added: "Some of the small businesses in the area - bars, restaurants, shops, cafes, bookmakers - would be affected, but there are sufficient alternative attractions in Edinburgh for those to recover."

The Iona Bar, in Easter Road, is one pub that would suffer. Owner for 21 years, Jim Colvine said: "If Hibs got relegated, there wouldn't be as many people coming to the pub, and there wouldn't be the same banter or atmosphere."

Mike Riley, chairman of the Supporters' Association, said even the thought of failing again, as the team did in 1997/98, was "horrendous".

"Financially, relegation is too horrendous to think about," said Mr Riley. "We've a set-up and an infrastructure which has even been talked about by Sir Alex Ferguson, and the thought doesn't bear thinking about.

"The memories of 1998 are still raw."

'NOW'S THE TIME TO GET BEHIND THE TEAM'

Some well-known Hibs fans offer their support to the club:

Radio DJ and panto villain Grant Stott: "All these players are capable of holding their own in the SPL and it's time they knuckled down, rolled their sleeves up and gave the fans a performance, but most importantly a result. It would be an absolute unmitigated disaster for the club and the fans if Hibs got relegated."

Councillor for Corstorphine/Murrayfield, Paul Edie: "We really need the boys to up their game for the rest of the season and just try and turn things around. We don't want to have the best stadium in the first division - it would be ghastly if Hibs were to go down."

Labour MSP for East Lothian, Iain Gray: "This is not the time for negative thinking. There are a lot of games to go, plenty of points to play for and it's important that all fans rally behind the club."

Hibs owner Sir Tom Farmer: "Six new team members joined the team this week and I'm sure all the Hibs supporters will cheer them on, as well as the existing players, and give them every support they can. The Hibernian roar will be well and truly appreciated by everybody. Now is the time to get behind the team."