'End of the runway' for RAF Kinloss

THE fallout has already begun. Within 24 hours of the bombshell announcement that RAF Kinloss was to close and RAF Lossiemouth's future as a Tornado base was balancing on a knife edge, the first signs of panic had set in.

• A Nimrod MR2 lands at RAF Kinloss near Inverness Picture: PA

Lesley Ann Parker, the chief executive of Moray Chamber of Commerce, revealed yesterday that at least one estate agent in the area was contacted by a number of homeowners to "sell their homes at any price" the day after the devastating news broke that Moray, the area of Britain most heavily dependent on the military, could be stripped bare of its service bases.

Gordon Hay, the office manager at Harvey Donaldson and Gibson, the chartered surveyors in Elgin, confirmed he had received seven phone calls from worried homeowners, asking him to get home reports before putting their properties on the market almost as soon as the announcement was made.

He said: "I really cannot remember the last time we had seven in a day. The enquiries were predominantly from Elgin, Lossiemouth and Forres. The market is very quiet at the moment and there is an oversupply of properties that are not selling. That last thing that the property market needs is another few hundred or a thousand houses flooding the market at the one time."

The growing sense of unease throughout the wider Moray community is palpable. For, by any measure, should both bases eventually close, the jobs crisis facing Moray would put the axing of Holy Loch and Ravenscraig in the shade.

A report commissioned by Highland and Islands Enterprise (HIE) has revealed that, between them, RAF Kinloss and Lossiemouth contribute 158 million a year to the Moray economy and collectively support the equivalent of 5,710 full-time jobs within the region - equal to one in six jobs. To put that in context, the job losses would be equivalent to 700,000 jobs being lost in Greater London or 69,000 in Glasgow.

Earlier this year - long before there was any inkling that the two RAF bases were under threat - the business plan produced by the Moray area team of HIE warned of the "fragile and heavy reliance" of Moray on a small number of "significant employers".

The unemployment rate in Moray is currently running at 2.2 per cent. The closure of RAF Kinloss, as a result of the government's decision to scrap the 3 billion plan for the replacement fleet of the new Nimrod MRA4 spy planes, will result in the unemployment rate in the region at least doubling. And, should RAF Lossiemouth lose the dogfight with RAF Marham in Norfolk to become Britain's sole remaining Tornado base, unemployment in Moray could soar to near-record Scottish levels, according to local enterprise chiefs.

Calum MacPherson, HIE area manager for Moray, is one of the leading members of the task force which has been formed to fight for the retention of "Lossie", currently Britain's busiest fast-jet base, as a frontline RAF facility.

The task force was established the day after the announcement, and comprises representatives from local government, HIE, local business leaders and the voluntary sector. And their first demand has been to call for face-to-face meeting in Moray with Prime Minister David Cameron. The Prime Minister is no stranger to Moray - his father Ian, who died in France last month after suffering a stroke, was born in Huntly. But he has yet to confirm whether he is ready to travel north to meet the task force.

MacPherson said: "We have already seen business confidence in the area being damaged because of the uncertainty. And the lack of clarity about the future of both bases continues to be one of the biggest challenges we face.

"With that continued uncertainty, it is difficult for local businesses to plan ahead. Local service providers, like car dealers, pubs and so on, are very worried because they rely on the people who live on the bases and they are obviously facing an extremely hard time. Lack of certainty is almost worse than bad news."

MacPherson said the ripple effect of the closure of even one of the two bases would be devastating across the entire community. A copy of the HIE's full economic impact assessment, obtained by Scotland and Sunday, states: "Our calculations suggest that every 100 military posts generate a further 83 civilian FTEs [full-time equivalent jobs] within the local economy."

According to the report, RAF Kinloss supports 2,341 FTEs within Moray, generating a total income of 68m. There are a total of around 1,300 service personnel at the base and 254 civilian employees. The average RAF wage is 33,400 with civilian posts averaging 23,000. Children of RAF Kinloss personnel account for 20 per cent of all the pupils in the Forres Academy catchment.

RAF Lossiemouth supports 3,370 full-time jobs within Moray, generating a total income of 90.3m. There are a total of 1,914 service personnel at the base and 288 civilian employees. The average wage for RAF personnel is 31,700, significantly above the local average.

In addition the wives or partners of RAF personnel at both bases account for 15 per cent of all NHS staff in Moray, including one in three nurses. Seventy per cent of all RAF spouses have jobs locally.

The hope now is that political lobbying can limit the damage. "The Prime Minister and Michael Moore, the Secretary of State for Scotland, have both said that social and economic factors will be a consideration in deciding the future of the bases," says MacPherson

"We want Mr Cameron to come here so we can convey to him just how important the two bases are to Moray. There is nowhere that is quite as dependent on the military as Moray is. Almost one in five jobs are dependent on the RAF bases and we have yet to see any other in the UK where that level of dependency is applied. If it is a case of social and economic impact then surely the reliance that Moray has is the strongest possible case."

The task force accepts, however, that Kinloss's days as an RAF base are over. And suggestions that the facility could be retained as a barracks for soldiers returning from Germany would do nothing to soften the devastating economic blow to the community.

"We understand that the earliest that troops could be brought back from Germany would be 2015 and that wouldn't fill the time gap or the numbers of jobs or the value of the RAF jobs," he said. "The RAF jobs are extremely high value and in economic terms, while Army jobs would be very welcome, they are not the same as RAF jobs."

In the meantime HIE will be working with Skills Scotland to offer assistance to personnel and businesses affected by the defence cuts. And in the longer term the task force will be pressing for infrastructure improvements to road links such as the A9 and A96 as well as rail and air links, to help the area recover from the devastation the military job losses will bring.

There are also plans to support the diversification of the region's economy in a number of areas including life sciences, offshore energy servicing, and tourism. A 7m life science centre is already planned for Elgin.

George McIntyre , the convener of Moray Council, says he remains resolute in his determination to persuade Cameron of the need to retain RAF Lossiemouth at all costs. "We understand we are in competition with RAF Marham, and we have to fight our corner," he said. "And that is what we are concentrating on at the moment. But we also have the fallout from RAF Kinloss to deal with. And we have this hiatus about what exactly is happening and the timings and the damaging effect that is happening on the wider community and local businesses."

He too dismissed suggestions that Kinloss could become an Army base as "small beer in comparison to what is there". And he continued: "They are also talking about 2015 - and who can speculate what will happen by then if these reductions go on."

Meanwhile Angus Robertson, the SNP for Moray, will tomorrow raise in the House of Commons a leaked defence document which appears to state that Tornado forces are to be centralised at RAF Marham by 31 October next year.

Robertson is demanding honesty from the UK government on the issue. "I hope that Prime Minister David Cameron and Scottish Secretary Michael Moore are being straight with Moray and Scotland when they say that no decision has been taken.

"Clearly there are senior figures within the RAF who favour Marham over Lossiemouth. I think people will be outraged to learn that some military officers with their own agendas are trying to undermine the decision-making process of government ministers. The military ordering democratically elected decision-makers around is what happens in a banana republic and shouldn't happen here."